Disclaimer: The majority of these ideas come from the @Tickerville Saturday morning brunch. In fact, many of these are direct quotes that I use as a check-point during the week. Trade at your own risk.
**Thanks to www.stocktwits.com for hosting. An excellent venue!
Quotable
One of many spot-on quotes: "Market knocked on deaths doorstep this week, breaking Nov trend line, but socialist mortgage plan saved the day."
Another great quote: "...that is because you are humble enough to learn and will succeed. Only pride stands in the way of making money in the market."
Commentary
It's tough to trust, but there is an interesting bid under this tape. The last couple weeks has had him covering a good deal of his shorts. The bid is not showing up yet on the daily charts at all, but the intra-day's have him looking for longs of late.
Since the brunch started in the first week of January he has come on each week and talked about shorts. He is now looking at potential longs. Could he be wrong? Of course he could. That's part of the game. "I won't argue with the market if that happens. I am just relaying what I see. Remember what has me eying long is that short breaks have been failing."
Here is the interesting thing and worth noting. He reviews three time frames. Weeklies, Dailies and Intra-day.
Weeklies he reviews are still in bearish patterns and will be for a long time. Interestingly, many have stopped breaking down. This could be short term phenom or a clue to stop shorting. He has pulled in many of those shorts until they start working again.
The dailies aren't there either way. So he has no daily swings going right now at all.
Which leaves him with intra-day charts. 10, 30 and 60 min. Interestingly, he is seeing more bullish patterns here than bearish, and therefore his focus is on these charts for the time being. He is seeing bearish patterns fail. It may not last, but its there. Seeing intra-day chart longs. He is looking at intra-day where volatility rules. You cannot view a 60 min chart and turn it into daily swing.
No, we can't trust a thing. @tickerville is trading weeklies and intra-day patterns. That is all that he is trusting right now. He believes that one must really embrace this chop to succeed in it. He has been holding incredible amounts of cash.
Let's look at some specifics:
$XOM broke down this week and will probably rally back to the trend line resistance - http://twitpic.com/1hgo6
$MCD starting to crack. No supersize yet but getting there. http://twitpic.com/1hgqf
$CAT - Trading is all about looking for clues. http://twitpic.com/1hgvq (30 min chart)
GOLD - After several months, he sold his $GLD on Thursday. He will wait to see how it handles this longer term trend. Thursday’s evening star may be a topping sign. He tried some $DZZ but was stopped quickly. He wants to go long again in time. For an explanation on "Evening Star" look here: http://thepatternsite.com/EveningStar.html You see Thursday's candle on $GLD chart and the gap lower on Friday. Evening star and short sign.
$RIO - Bingo, you see that 10 min break on Friday? @JeffreyLin played that in a textbook manner.
$CME 60 min chart showing multi-month trend break up. http://twitpic.com/1hh7v - He will be looking to go long $CME based on that 60 min chart with a stop at trend line. "@Jsalvo - I am going to go out on a limb and say CME gaps up Tuesday." Yeah $CME could take off of the daily 50sma that's why he likes its nice consolidation. What is good about the $CME is when you review the 60 min and see trend break, you can look at daily and realize it could really run.
$FLR 30 min inverse head and shoulder http://twitpic.com/1hhh8
He found a perfect example to show bear trap. The $IBM chart. http://twitpic.com/1hhlj - $IBM bear trap. 60 min
Another bear trap $LLL Notice how vicious rally was after false break down. http://twitpic.com/1hhoi
Here is one of his best trades this week. It was $X. http://twitpic.com/1hhs7 - I didn't do many of these, but realizing the traps kept him out of trouble.
$MS 30 min interesting trend line - http://twitpic.com/1hhxf
Last week one of the primary discussions surrounded ‘set ups’ and all the stocks discussed needed good entry. Specifically discussed was $STLD and how he was watching for a constructive pull back. Well, did we get it? Nope! So did you take it? Shouldn’t have! This is how one avoids losses. Here is $STLD from last week. http://twitpic.com/1df75. $STLD daily updated. http://twitpic.com/1hi5h - Did not set up in a healthy manner.
He sees nothing yet on $DIG. Daily and weekly horrendous. Intra-day mixed.
$TEVA as noted last week. Stopped out, but shows why stops are important to respect always. http://twitpic.com/1hi74
$ADP short ?...everyone losses job-they got to suffer badly and chart looks brutal Weeklies point down, dailies are not prudent either way. Intra-day is interesting and I'll note that.
Pull up 30 min $OIH. This is a break down he is watching closely. Draw a trend line from 2/3 and 2/4 low. You see how it broke through that trend line on 2/11 with a kiss on the same day and again on 2/13? So far the bearish breakdown has been confirmed. But if it fails, and $OIH recaptures trend, he'll go long quickly. http://twitpic.com/1hida - $OIH as just discussed.
$GOOG a 30 min that is on my short list. http://twitpic.com/1hiug
As he looks at the week ahead:
Core shorts are as follows: Short $XOM, $MCD, $GILD, $ESRX
One swing short $PDA
One swing long $WPRT
$AKAM consolidating nicely post pop. 30 min over $18 he'd take it with stop at $17.60.
$AAPL is similar to $GOOG in that it is hanging below trend line on 30 min but not yet breaking down. Over $100 he'd try
Semis have shown a resilient bid. If the Head and Shoulders on 30 min fails, he would be interested in $LLTC http://twitpic.com/1hj5v
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