Disclaimer: The majority of these ideas come from the @Tickerville Saturday morning brunch. In fact, many of these are direct quotes that I use as a check-point during the week. Trade at your own risk.
* Because of all the "discussion" this week, any reference to "I" is from @tickerville. The blog author did not have time to grammatically update that piece this week.
**Thanks to www.stocktwits.com for hosting. An excellent venue!
Another great week on www.StockTwits.com and the Saturday morning brunch with the Q-Man = @tickerville. This week got off to an interesting start, with some interesting, and shall I say "heated" 140 character discussion of "philosophical" and "idealogical" concepts of trading and the the markets. I tried to capture most of that thread and it is towards the end of this post.
Personally, I prefer the Technical Analysis, Charts, and the ensuing comments surrounding this information. Here is what was analyzed this week:
- http://twitpic.com/1lxln - $AOC weekly is high on my radar. Should it crack the level shown. $AOC had 200wk MA support there too
- http://twitpic.com/1lxqa - $APC daily is a short I am watching. It already broke and I would love to see it bounce a bit.
- http://twitpic.com/1lxc6 - $AMGN may work if market heats up. Looking for break on high volume
- http://twitpic.com/1lwti - $XOM weekly continues to roll over. Down another 5% in the past 5 days. $XOM is a perfect example. It has taken time, but continues to follow a pretty good TA weekly rollover pattern. I added more this week.
- @tickerville is there are stocks just breaking to all-time highs?
- @howardlindzon A few. Let me put up $AZO I am watching for this week. http://twitpic.com/1lwzt
- $AZO is a long potential, breaking out of multi-year base on volume.
- @tickerville what are your three favorite short setups right now? @howardlindzon Longer term, I have to stick with the ponies I have been riding for months now. $MCD, $XOM and this week I added $DV
- A Mid-week post: $NUE a/v http://tinyurl.com/byatm3
- http://twitpic.com/1lx7m - One of my favorite long set ups this week $AKAM
- Let's break down that $APOL. Here is one that is quite interesting to me . http://twitpic.com/1lxu6
- $APOL weekly chart still looks bullish. interesting that volume on the weekly supports a bullish stance on $apol still Yes, it's putting up a fight for now. http://twitpic.com/1lxw7
- $APOL Daily looks VERY vulnerable however is putting up a fight.
So in conclusion, the reactionary short on $APOL is to wait for a break back below $76.30. But there is a very good risk reward for starting short in anticipation, with a stop above distribution day. $84.22
- Now, let's look at another educational stock, that I got short this week on the big break. $DV http://twitpic.com/1ly4l - $DV is a short I started this week. It cannot get back above weekly trend. http://twitpic.com/1ly6g - $DV daily shows big cracks. Good entry here but be patient.
- ECRX - http://twitpic.com/1lya4 - We had a very good short here earlier this year. I am looking for round 2
- http://twitpic.com/1lybm - $FCX is a long I am watching. It has been very resilient and may be poised to attack trend line again.
- If we rally it will have to come from the fins that will live. I have stayed far away from this area but little guys are interesting. May just be an exhaustion rally, but it's worth watching. they have some shrt trm pain cmng but will survive.
- http://twitpic.com/1lyhn - $BBT goes onto the list I am building of fins that may live.
- @tickerville can you update your views on $ASEI ? @ppearlman Yes. I had this in MV FlexFolio and sold it after the post earnings reaction. It did not act like a winner after those numbers. from @cubbiebears (I think) - @ppearlman with all due respect, $ASEI looks brutal....thx for pointing out nice short opportunity
- http://twitpic.com/1lynj - $PDCO popped on earnings out of a multi-month base. I am watching for a prudent entry on long side.
- http://twitpic.com/1lyra - $PX daily looks vulnerable as it bounces off the trend line. I am looking for a short here.
- http://twitpic.com/1lysx - I love $SBUX coffee but their chart looks vulnerable. I am looking to short on a break.
- http://twitpic.com/1lz00 - $SRCL was a short of mine a few weeks ago. Covered in flush. Looking to re-enter.
- http://twitpic.com/1lz2y - $TJX is a retail I am watching. It has been consolidating nicely.
- http://twitpic.com/1lzcl - $GMCR weekly looks bullish, but has some subtle signs of cracking. Similar to $DV
- http://twitpic.com/1lzeq - $GMCR is a short on a break below Friday's low with a stop at Friday's high.
That's it for the TA - below is the most of the verbiage:
Let's kick off this morning with a short discussion about last week, and the evolution of our brunch. We're heading into month 3, and while I am excited how we've progressed, I always want to try and take it to the next level. Last week, I tried to talk about more actionable ideas, so I brought you into the world of intra-day trading, reviewing intraday charts I was seeing a lot of intra-day action that suggested we may actually pop, bearish patters that were failing
By 9:31am Tuesday morning, this thesis was completely blown apart. I spent the week chewing on how worthless last week's brunch was. (don't beat yourself up @tickerville!)
So what I would like to do this week, is revisit many of the longer term patterns that have been working. And discuss ideas that I am watching in that same manner for the upcoming week. Making consistent money in the market is not easy. For those who say it is, they are lying. We all have to find our own style that works.
May I ask why people are always bent on making predictions? I never get that.
Keep in mind, I am never here to convince anyone of anything. I can only relay what has worked for me and what may work for you.
I am not smarter than the market. I am simply here to try and play along and take more out than I put in.
It's always a good debate and I have learned that I will never 'convince' anyone. My goal is to teach those who desire to learn.
Style is often correlated with your personality.
I come from value background. Would NEVER go back.
Remember, you don't have to predict anything, you just have to be humble enough to jump on for the ride, regardless of direction.
I only started making real money, and avoided 70 year melt down for all my clients due to Technical Analysis.
Trading is about identifying opportunities. The quantifiable opportunity gives you your edge. Probabilities give you your profits.
It was puke fest followed by a bounce. Been a Thursday, I think it would have followed through. Nationalization fears capped us The key with this week was to adapt quickly. Clearly coming in looking for longs was proven wrong immediately. One has to adapt and adjust
What a week!. The averages were blown apart with the S&P dropping close to 7% for the week.
TA has been working just fine but you have to be much more patient.
This is a great place to begin I agree T/A works fine but there are blips in the data when news or reaction to news hits. This is an excellent point. It is why I continue to gravitate toward the weeklies. I trade weeklies in a different account than my daily swings or intra-day.
In my weekly account I had them shut off quotes.
If asking if I think market bounces from here, I say yes. I am not yet adding in anticipation but let me draw up some longs
Also, I get many questions on why I don't tweet enough during day. Pre-Stock twits I launched FlexFolio with Minyanville, I run Tickerville and manage $
If I may plug my 8 hour boot camp. I got so fed up with all the bad info out there I put together my own. http://bit.ly/16g1tO
I am out of $GLD now too. Sold a tad too early but will re-enter in the future. The refiner dump has me interested. Until they cracked I stayed away. I need a set up to put meaningful money to work there
very cool. thanks for doing this.
ReplyDeletecheers!