Disclaimer: The majority of these ideas come from the @Tickerville Saturday morning brunch. In fact, many of these are direct quotes that I use as a check-point during the week. Trade at your own risk. Any reference to "I" is from @tickerville. The blog author did not have time to grammatically update that piece this week.
**Thanks to www.stocktwits.com for hosting. An excellent venue!
First off, let's recap. S&P down 4.54% this week. 18.62 % for the year. I continue to see predictions after predictions. Why does someone come onuto the web with a big following and say "All In". Oh, a little secret. NO ONE KNOWS what will happen. If they say they do, they are lying.
A great rule of thumb for momo stocks is the 9day MA. When that breaks on volume get out. No questions asked.
Some fun this week with a Mystery Chart:
I use a mystery chart so that people can detach themselves from the company when I tell you who it is. We shouldn't give a rat what the company is. We should simply play the chart, identify the risk reward and be on our way
http://twitpic.com/1r2ly OK, thoughts on this chart???
We shouldn't care what it is, just HOW to play it. When I look at this mystery chart I see an attempted death plunge that was bought. I see big head and shoulder top, with higher right shoulder to suck in longs. I see that it is now dancing on a huge support area. I see that the risk reward for going short on a break of this support area, looks excellent. Ala it is minimal risk to be stopped out if it moves back above the line and the move down to at least retest lows looks large. The trade is AFTER the move is made. Interesting. A buy at support right here also looks like a good risk reward. I think what we can ALL agree on, is just how pivotal the area this stock now sits. Yes? But if too many shorts were leaning i would attempt to fade the shorts on big bear snapper @TraderAlamo Bingo sir Paris! If I showed you volume you'd get even more fired up. My point in mystery chart is not to be silly or play games. So often when I review charts, I start to get feedback about other garbage
Scroll Down for answer to Mystery Chart - sorry, I can't make the text upside down like in those elementary quizzes!
Now, for some open conversations and ideas:
http://twitpic.com/1r19m $AAPL weekly. You can see it is moving sideways and setting up for possible big break lower. I think $AAPL is being kept up by hope that it can weather the retail storm. I would play a break long or short, either way. $AAPL is in the same spot it was since October. While market has sliced through lows like a hot knife through butter. Is $AAPL immune? I think not, but we have to review the weekly here and it is one of my favorite short opps.
@JST4FSH I didn't catch $AMGN, but I did catch $IBB and $GILD both were butes. We've been talking about $GILD weekly short for weeks
@tickerville $$ Kudos. Great short calls last week on $FSLR and $APOL. @BlinnPR Thank you sir. We'll update $APOL and $DV. They aren't done.
http://twitpic.com/1r1ds We've been watching $XOM for months. Finally it has given us a good run. I booked my gains here this week. I do think $XOM will set up again for a short, but I will give it time to form another wedge as it did before.
Last week you talked about $BBT; it rose modestly this week despite raising their div, what do u see it doing over next few months? Before the 'modestly' part $BBT had a monster run. I didn't play it either way, but it is acting like it survives I need a set up
Now, while I covered all my shorts as noted by my Twit post on Friday. I am watching for re-entry. I covered shorts because clearly we're oversold. Doesn't mean we can't become MORE oversold. We want to be prepared either way.
Last week @Howardlindzon asked my 3 favorite shorts: I replied $XOM, $MCD and $DV.
Let's break down our old $DV http://twitpic.com/1r1ja $DV weekly broke but held on by a thread. I am waiting for a light volume hope bounce to lay out my short again.
@tickerville $SWN got silly upgrade on friday...moved right back to shortable area when it bumped it's 50 dma.
@CubbieBears Noice one. Let me mark up that chart. Like it quite a bit!
http://twitpic.com/1r1n9 Off @CubbieBears eyes this will now grace my watch list this week.
@tickerville $AMZN looks frothy? @bluewaterpro Actually if market can catch a bid. I would go here first. When I get to longs, I'll do chart.
@JST4FSH We talked about $AKAM this last week as my favorite long set up. It was a good trade but was hit by Flipper mania. Had to move quick. Real move will come if market catches bid.
When market runs we have to play fins. They'll have the most juice. $GS $MS the leaders there.
@urban_ryno In Tickerville this week we played $BAC for a sick gain. I played $FAS for a 30% move in Minyavnille FlexFolio.
@tickerville... That $IBB stalk and kill was money!!! Great great trade & patience ... well done sir! @BuyOnTheDip That took some time but the $IBB was a beauty. Last thing on $IBB. I think what's important to see with that trade is I was prepared to go either way. I didn't care.
Specific Ideas from @tickerville:
AKAM - http://twitpic.com/1r1v0 $AKAM daily still looks promising. One of the few. I like the anticipatory buy, peeling off into pop Stop Noted
AMAT - http://twitpic.com/1r1xn I would be play this stock long off a trend break with volume. The accumulation here is worth noting.
AMZN - http://twitpic.com/1r1zy Keeping an open mind, I am watching $AMZN for further squeeze potential on daily. A high volume break.
APOL - I saw many shorting $APOL this week. It was a good one. I would like to leg into a short there with $DV.
http://twitpic.com/1r225 I would like to see a low risk entry on $APOL in time.
CMTL - http://twitpic.com/1r24y $CMTL cracking. Weekly one of my favorite short setups. Check for earnings date. Not sure when it is.
@dwha Thank you! Please note $CMTL earnings on 3/11.
$CMTL earnings 3-4-09 after market unconfirmed info from briefing.com
http://twitpic.com/1r351 But here is the $CMTL weekly that looks oh so tasty as well. When the time frames align it can be a beauty
COCO - seems to be dancing to a different beat. A move back below 17.70 would have me pouncing here.
GILD - http://twitpic.com/1r28b $GILD cracked for us this week. I covered to take gain. Definitely looking to re-enter.
GMCR - I am not sure if it was last week or week before, but we talked a bit about $GMCR, on this same premise.
http://twitpic.com/1r2f3 $GMCR weekly nothing too exciting. Hanging under trend line. Need to look under hood.
http://twitpic.com/1r2h4 under hood $GMCR doesn't look so hot. Looks ripe for short
HSIC - http://twitpic.com/1r30u $HSIC daily looks ripe to me. First break seemed suspect. Next one may be real deal
MOS - I heard lots of takeover chatter on $MOS. Nice run there but not for me yet. Could gap-a-roo if real.
GERN - This is failed mo mo. Not for me at all. Maybe it comes back around but it's all trapped money now $GERN
http://twitpic.com/1r3et When momo leaves, it is dangerous.
Note that $GERN first broke 9day MA on 2/10 giving you ample time to say goodbye.
GILD - The great thing about $GILD this week was how weekly and daily aligned. $MICC is one that is coming together on 2 time frames as well.
http://twitpic.com/1r33m OK, so here is $MICC daily. You can see it is very close to a break.
GME - http://twitpic.com/1r39h Per request. Here is $GME daily. Dancing on trend. This is an interesting chart. Let's discuss it a bit. One would normally look at a rising wedge like this in a bear market and be certain it will break support
But sometimes, eager shorts keep hitting it early, are forced to cover, sending chart higher and higher. When I see a pattern like this, it is truly a 'trade the trader' type pattern where the obvious may not work. If market catches a bid, I suspect it could run into 30's. If market continues to crack, I would take short on a break of TL
IBM - $IBM isn't for me and does not have the air under it that $GOOG has.
MDR - @BuyOnTheDip http://twitpic.com/1r3hg $MDR for you. I'll be watching. Nice.
TSYS - I am long a little $TSYS and will get to chart in a bit, but so far it too is under attack. When we bounce, as we did on Tue, I play crap $$
MYSTERY CHART is, drum roll please…
Mystery Chart is $GOOG weekly.
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