Ideas Week of 3/2/09

Disclaimer: The majority of these ideas come from the @Tickerville Saturday morning brunch. In fact, many of these are direct quotes that I use as a check-point during the week. Trade at your own risk. Any reference to "I" is from @tickerville. The blog author did not have time to grammatically update that piece this week.

**Thanks to www.stocktwits.com for hosting. An excellent venue!

First off, let's recap. S&P down 4.54% this week. 18.62 % for the year. I continue to see predictions after predictions. Why does someone come onuto the web with a big following and say "All In". Oh, a little secret. NO ONE KNOWS what will happen. If they say they do, they are lying.

A great rule of thumb for momo stocks is the 9day MA. When that breaks on volume get out. No questions asked.

Some fun this week with a Mystery Chart:
I use a mystery chart so that people can detach themselves from the company when I tell you who it is. We shouldn't give a rat what the company is. We should simply play the chart, identify the risk reward and be on our way

http://twitpic.com/1r2ly OK, thoughts on this chart???

We shouldn't care what it is, just HOW to play it. When I look at this mystery chart I see an attempted death plunge that was bought. I see big head and shoulder top, with higher right shoulder to suck in longs. I see that it is now dancing on a huge support area. I see that the risk reward for going short on a break of this support area, looks excellent. Ala it is minimal risk to be stopped out if it moves back above the line and the move down to at least retest lows looks large. The trade is AFTER the move is made. Interesting. A buy at support right here also looks like a good risk reward. I think what we can ALL agree on, is just how pivotal the area this stock now sits. Yes? But if too many shorts were leaning i would attempt to fade the shorts on big bear snapper @TraderAlamo Bingo sir Paris! If I showed you volume you'd get even more fired up. My point in mystery chart is not to be silly or play games. So often when I review charts, I start to get feedback about other garbage

Scroll Down for answer to Mystery Chart - sorry, I can't make the text upside down like in those elementary quizzes!

Now, for some open conversations and ideas:

http://twitpic.com/1r19m $AAPL weekly. You can see it is moving sideways and setting up for possible big break lower. I think $AAPL is being kept up by hope that it can weather the retail storm. I would play a break long or short, either way. $AAPL is in the same spot it was since October. While market has sliced through lows like a hot knife through butter. Is $AAPL immune? I think not, but we have to review the weekly here and it is one of my favorite short opps.

@JST4FSH I didn't catch $AMGN, but I did catch $IBB and $GILD both were butes. We've been talking about $GILD weekly short for weeks

@tickerville $$ Kudos. Great short calls last week on $FSLR and $APOL. @BlinnPR Thank you sir. We'll update $APOL and $DV. They aren't done.

http://twitpic.com/1r1ds We've been watching $XOM for months. Finally it has given us a good run. I booked my gains here this week. I do think $XOM will set up again for a short, but I will give it time to form another wedge as it did before.

Last week you talked about $BBT; it rose modestly this week despite raising their div, what do u see it doing over next few months? Before the 'modestly' part $BBT had a monster run. I didn't play it either way, but it is acting like it survives I need a set up

Now, while I covered all my shorts as noted by my Twit post on Friday. I am watching for re-entry. I covered shorts because clearly we're oversold. Doesn't mean we can't become MORE oversold. We want to be prepared either way.

Last week @Howardlindzon asked my 3 favorite shorts: I replied $XOM, $MCD and $DV.

Let's break down our old $DV http://twitpic.com/1r1ja $DV weekly broke but held on by a thread. I am waiting for a light volume hope bounce to lay out my short again.

@tickerville $SWN got silly upgrade on friday...moved right back to shortable area when it bumped it's 50 dma.
@CubbieBears Noice one. Let me mark up that chart. Like it quite a bit!
http://twitpic.com/1r1n9 Off @CubbieBears eyes this will now grace my watch list this week.

@tickerville $AMZN looks frothy? @bluewaterpro Actually if market can catch a bid. I would go here first. When I get to longs, I'll do chart.

@JST4FSH We talked about $AKAM this last week as my favorite long set up. It was a good trade but was hit by Flipper mania. Had to move quick. Real move will come if market catches bid.

When market runs we have to play fins. They'll have the most juice. $GS $MS the leaders there.

@urban_ryno In Tickerville this week we played $BAC for a sick gain. I played $FAS for a 30% move in Minyavnille FlexFolio.

@tickerville... That $IBB stalk and kill was money!!! Great great trade & patience ... well done sir! @BuyOnTheDip That took some time but the $IBB was a beauty. Last thing on $IBB. I think what's important to see with that trade is I was prepared to go either way. I didn't care.

Specific Ideas from @tickerville:

AKAM - http://twitpic.com/1r1v0 $AKAM daily still looks promising. One of the few. I like the anticipatory buy, peeling off into pop Stop Noted

AMAT - http://twitpic.com/1r1xn I would be play this stock long off a trend break with volume. The accumulation here is worth noting.

AMZN - http://twitpic.com/1r1zy Keeping an open mind, I am watching $AMZN for further squeeze potential on daily. A high volume break.

APOL - I saw many shorting $APOL this week. It was a good one. I would like to leg into a short there with $DV.
http://twitpic.com/1r225 I would like to see a low risk entry on $APOL in time.

CMTL - http://twitpic.com/1r24y $CMTL cracking. Weekly one of my favorite short setups. Check for earnings date. Not sure when it is.
@dwha Thank you! Please note $CMTL earnings on 3/11.
$CMTL earnings 3-4-09 after market unconfirmed info from briefing.com
http://twitpic.com/1r351 But here is the $CMTL weekly that looks oh so tasty as well. When the time frames align it can be a beauty

COCO - seems to be dancing to a different beat. A move back below 17.70 would have me pouncing here.

GILD - http://twitpic.com/1r28b $GILD cracked for us this week. I covered to take gain. Definitely looking to re-enter.

GMCR - I am not sure if it was last week or week before, but we talked a bit about $GMCR, on this same premise.
http://twitpic.com/1r2f3 $GMCR weekly nothing too exciting. Hanging under trend line. Need to look under hood.
http://twitpic.com/1r2h4 under hood $GMCR doesn't look so hot. Looks ripe for short

HSIC - http://twitpic.com/1r30u $HSIC daily looks ripe to me. First break seemed suspect. Next one may be real deal

MOS - I heard lots of takeover chatter on $MOS. Nice run there but not for me yet. Could gap-a-roo if real.

GERN - This is failed mo mo. Not for me at all. Maybe it comes back around but it's all trapped money now $GERN
http://twitpic.com/1r3et When momo leaves, it is dangerous.
Note that $GERN first broke 9day MA on 2/10 giving you ample time to say goodbye.

GILD - The great thing about $GILD this week was how weekly and daily aligned. $MICC is one that is coming together on 2 time frames as well.
http://twitpic.com/1r33m OK, so here is $MICC daily. You can see it is very close to a break.

GME - http://twitpic.com/1r39h Per request. Here is $GME daily. Dancing on trend. This is an interesting chart. Let's discuss it a bit. One would normally look at a rising wedge like this in a bear market and be certain it will break support
But sometimes, eager shorts keep hitting it early, are forced to cover, sending chart higher and higher. When I see a pattern like this, it is truly a 'trade the trader' type pattern where the obvious may not work. If market catches a bid, I suspect it could run into 30's. If market continues to crack, I would take short on a break of TL

IBM - $IBM isn't for me and does not have the air under it that $GOOG has.

MDR - @BuyOnTheDip http://twitpic.com/1r3hg $MDR for you. I'll be watching. Nice.

TSYS - I am long a little $TSYS and will get to chart in a bit, but so far it too is under attack. When we bounce, as we did on Tue, I play crap $$

MYSTERY CHART is, drum roll please…
Mystery Chart is $GOOG weekly.

http://twitpic.com/1r2wp

Ideas Week of 2/23/09

Disclaimer: The majority of these ideas come from the @Tickerville Saturday morning brunch. In fact, many of these are direct quotes that I use as a check-point during the week. Trade at your own risk.

* Because of all the "discussion" this week, any reference to "I" is from @tickerville. The blog author did not have time to grammatically update that piece this week.

**Thanks to www.stocktwits.com for hosting. An excellent venue!

Another great week on www.StockTwits.com and the Saturday morning brunch with the Q-Man = @tickerville. This week got off to an interesting start, with some interesting, and shall I say "heated" 140 character discussion of "philosophical" and "idealogical" concepts of trading and the the markets. I tried to capture most of that thread and it is towards the end of this post.

Personally, I prefer the Technical Analysis, Charts, and the ensuing comments surrounding this information. Here is what was analyzed this week:

- http://twitpic.com/1lxln - $AOC weekly is high on my radar. Should it crack the level shown. $AOC had 200wk MA support there too

- http://twitpic.com/1lxqa - $APC daily is a short I am watching. It already broke and I would love to see it bounce a bit.

- http://twitpic.com/1lxc6 - $AMGN may work if market heats up. Looking for break on high volume

- http://twitpic.com/1lwti - $XOM weekly continues to roll over. Down another 5% in the past 5 days. $XOM is a perfect example. It has taken time, but continues to follow a pretty good TA weekly rollover pattern. I added more this week.

- @tickerville is there are stocks just breaking to all-time highs?

- @howardlindzon A few. Let me put up $AZO I am watching for this week. http://twitpic.com/1lwzt

- $AZO is a long potential, breaking out of multi-year base on volume.

- @tickerville what are your three favorite short setups right now? @howardlindzon Longer term, I have to stick with the ponies I have been riding for months now. $MCD, $XOM and this week I added $DV

- A Mid-week post: $NUE a/v http://tinyurl.com/byatm3

- http://twitpic.com/1lx7m - One of my favorite long set ups this week $AKAM

- Let's break down that $APOL. Here is one that is quite interesting to me . http://twitpic.com/1lxu6
- $APOL weekly chart still looks bullish. interesting that volume on the weekly supports a bullish stance on $apol still Yes, it's putting up a fight for now. http://twitpic.com/1lxw7
- $APOL Daily looks VERY vulnerable however is putting up a fight.
So in conclusion, the reactionary short on $APOL is to wait for a break back below $76.30. But there is a very good risk reward for starting short in anticipation, with a stop above distribution day. $84.22

- Now, let's look at another educational stock, that I got short this week on the big break. $DV http://twitpic.com/1ly4l - $DV is a short I started this week. It cannot get back above weekly trend. http://twitpic.com/1ly6g - $DV daily shows big cracks. Good entry here but be patient.

- ECRX - http://twitpic.com/1lya4 - We had a very good short here earlier this year. I am looking for round 2

- http://twitpic.com/1lybm - $FCX is a long I am watching. It has been very resilient and may be poised to attack trend line again.

- If we rally it will have to come from the fins that will live. I have stayed far away from this area but little guys are interesting. May just be an exhaustion rally, but it's worth watching. they have some shrt trm pain cmng but will survive.

- http://twitpic.com/1lyhn - $BBT goes onto the list I am building of fins that may live.

- @tickerville can you update your views on $ASEI ? @ppearlman Yes. I had this in MV FlexFolio and sold it after the post earnings reaction. It did not act like a winner after those numbers. from @cubbiebears (I think) - @ppearlman with all due respect, $ASEI looks brutal....thx for pointing out nice short opportunity

- http://twitpic.com/1lynj - $PDCO popped on earnings out of a multi-month base. I am watching for a prudent entry on long side.

- http://twitpic.com/1lyra - $PX daily looks vulnerable as it bounces off the trend line. I am looking for a short here.

- http://twitpic.com/1lysx - I love $SBUX coffee but their chart looks vulnerable. I am looking to short on a break.

- http://twitpic.com/1lz00 - $SRCL was a short of mine a few weeks ago. Covered in flush. Looking to re-enter.

- http://twitpic.com/1lz2y - $TJX is a retail I am watching. It has been consolidating nicely.

- http://twitpic.com/1lzcl - $GMCR weekly looks bullish, but has some subtle signs of cracking. Similar to $DV

- http://twitpic.com/1lzeq - $GMCR is a short on a break below Friday's low with a stop at Friday's high.

That's it for the TA - below is the most of the verbiage:

Let's kick off this morning with a short discussion about last week, and the evolution of our brunch. We're heading into month 3, and while I am excited how we've progressed, I always want to try and take it to the next level. Last week, I tried to talk about more actionable ideas, so I brought you into the world of intra-day trading, reviewing intraday charts I was seeing a lot of intra-day action that suggested we may actually pop, bearish patters that were failing

By 9:31am Tuesday morning, this thesis was completely blown apart. I spent the week chewing on how worthless last week's brunch was. (don't beat yourself up @tickerville!)

So what I would like to do this week, is revisit many of the longer term patterns that have been working. And discuss ideas that I am watching in that same manner for the upcoming week. Making consistent money in the market is not easy. For those who say it is, they are lying. We all have to find our own style that works.

May I ask why people are always bent on making predictions? I never get that.

Keep in mind, I am never here to convince anyone of anything. I can only relay what has worked for me and what may work for you.

I am not smarter than the market. I am simply here to try and play along and take more out than I put in.

It's always a good debate and I have learned that I will never 'convince' anyone. My goal is to teach those who desire to learn.

Style is often correlated with your personality.

I come from value background. Would NEVER go back.

Remember, you don't have to predict anything, you just have to be humble enough to jump on for the ride, regardless of direction.

I only started making real money, and avoided 70 year melt down for all my clients due to Technical Analysis.

Trading is about identifying opportunities. The quantifiable opportunity gives you your edge. Probabilities give you your profits.

It was puke fest followed by a bounce. Been a Thursday, I think it would have followed through. Nationalization fears capped us The key with this week was to adapt quickly. Clearly coming in looking for longs was proven wrong immediately. One has to adapt and adjust

What a week!. The averages were blown apart with the S&P dropping close to 7% for the week.

TA has been working just fine but you have to be much more patient.

This is a great place to begin I agree T/A works fine but there are blips in the data when news or reaction to news hits. This is an excellent point. It is why I continue to gravitate toward the weeklies. I trade weeklies in a different account than my daily swings or intra-day.

In my weekly account I had them shut off quotes.

If asking if I think market bounces from here, I say yes. I am not yet adding in anticipation but let me draw up some longs

Also, I get many questions on why I don't tweet enough during day. Pre-Stock twits I launched FlexFolio with Minyanville, I run Tickerville and manage $

If I may plug my 8 hour boot camp. I got so fed up with all the bad info out there I put together my own. http://bit.ly/16g1tO

I am out of $GLD now too. Sold a tad too early but will re-enter in the future. The refiner dump has me interested. Until they cracked I stayed away. I need a set up to put meaningful money to work there

Ideas Week of 2/16/09

Disclaimer: The majority of these ideas come from the @Tickerville Saturday morning brunch. In fact, many of these are direct quotes that I use as a check-point during the week. Trade at your own risk.

**Thanks to www.stocktwits.com for hosting. An excellent venue!

Quotable

One of many spot-on quotes: "Market knocked on deaths doorstep this week, breaking Nov trend line, but socialist mortgage plan saved the day."

Another great quote: "...that is because you are humble enough to learn and will succeed. Only pride stands in the way of making money in the market."

Commentary

It's tough to trust, but there is an interesting bid under this tape. The last couple weeks has had him covering a good deal of his shorts. The bid is not showing up yet on the daily charts at all, but the intra-day's have him looking for longs of late.

Since the brunch started in the first week of January he has come on each week and talked about shorts. He is now looking at potential longs. Could he be wrong? Of course he could. That's part of the game. "I won't argue with the market if that happens. I am just relaying what I see. Remember what has me eying long is that short breaks have been failing."

Here is the interesting thing and worth noting. He reviews three time frames. Weeklies, Dailies and Intra-day.

Weeklies he reviews are still in bearish patterns and will be for a long time. Interestingly, many have stopped breaking down. This could be short term phenom or a clue to stop shorting. He has pulled in many of those shorts until they start working again.

The dailies aren't there either way. So he has no daily swings going right now at all.

Which leaves him with intra-day charts. 10, 30 and 60 min. Interestingly, he is seeing more bullish patterns here than bearish, and therefore his focus is on these charts for the time being. He is seeing bearish patterns fail. It may not last, but its there. Seeing intra-day chart longs. He is looking at intra-day where volatility rules. You cannot view a 60 min chart and turn it into daily swing.

No, we can't trust a thing. @tickerville is trading weeklies and intra-day patterns. That is all that he is trusting right now. He believes that one must really embrace this chop to succeed in it. He has been holding incredible amounts of cash.

Let's look at some specifics:

$XOM broke down this week and will probably rally back to the trend line resistance - http://twitpic.com/1hgo6

$MCD starting to crack. No supersize yet but getting there. http://twitpic.com/1hgqf

$CAT - Trading is all about looking for clues. http://twitpic.com/1hgvq (30 min chart)

GOLD - After several months, he sold his $GLD on Thursday. He will wait to see how it handles this longer term trend. Thursday’s evening star may be a topping sign. He tried some $DZZ but was stopped quickly. He wants to go long again in time. For an explanation on "Evening Star" look here: http://thepatternsite.com/EveningStar.html You see Thursday's candle on $GLD chart and the gap lower on Friday. Evening star and short sign.

$RIO - Bingo, you see that 10 min break on Friday? @JeffreyLin played that in a textbook manner.

$CME 60 min chart showing multi-month trend break up. http://twitpic.com/1hh7v - He will be looking to go long $CME based on that 60 min chart with a stop at trend line. "@Jsalvo - I am going to go out on a limb and say CME gaps up Tuesday." Yeah $CME could take off of the daily 50sma that's why he likes its nice consolidation. What is good about the $CME is when you review the 60 min and see trend break, you can look at daily and realize it could really run.

$FLR 30 min inverse head and shoulder http://twitpic.com/1hhh8

He found a perfect example to show bear trap. The $IBM chart. http://twitpic.com/1hhlj - $IBM bear trap. 60 min

Another bear trap $LLL Notice how vicious rally was after false break down. http://twitpic.com/1hhoi

Here is one of his best trades this week. It was $X. http://twitpic.com/1hhs7 - I didn't do many of these, but realizing the traps kept him out of trouble.

$MS 30 min interesting trend line - http://twitpic.com/1hhxf

Last week one of the primary discussions surrounded ‘set ups’ and all the stocks discussed needed good entry. Specifically discussed was $STLD and how he was watching for a constructive pull back. Well, did we get it? Nope! So did you take it? Shouldn’t have! This is how one avoids losses. Here is $STLD from last week. http://twitpic.com/1df75. $STLD daily updated. http://twitpic.com/1hi5h - Did not set up in a healthy manner.

He sees nothing yet on $DIG. Daily and weekly horrendous. Intra-day mixed.

$TEVA as noted last week. Stopped out, but shows why stops are important to respect always. http://twitpic.com/1hi74

$ADP short ?...everyone losses job-they got to suffer badly and chart looks brutal Weeklies point down, dailies are not prudent either way. Intra-day is interesting and I'll note that.

Pull up 30 min $OIH. This is a break down he is watching closely. Draw a trend line from 2/3 and 2/4 low. You see how it broke through that trend line on 2/11 with a kiss on the same day and again on 2/13? So far the bearish breakdown has been confirmed. But if it fails, and $OIH recaptures trend, he'll go long quickly. http://twitpic.com/1hida - $OIH as just discussed.

$GOOG a 30 min that is on my short list. http://twitpic.com/1hiug

As he looks at the week ahead:

Core shorts are as follows: Short $XOM, $MCD, $GILD, $ESRX
One swing short $PDA
One swing long $WPRT

$AKAM consolidating nicely post pop. 30 min over $18 he'd take it with stop at $17.60.

$AAPL is similar to $GOOG in that it is hanging below trend line on 30 min but not yet breaking down. Over $100 he'd try

Semis have shown a resilient bid. If the Head and Shoulders on 30 min fails, he would be interested in $LLTC http://twitpic.com/1hj5v

Ideas Week of 2/9

Disclaimer: The majority of these ideas come from the @Tickerville Saturday morning brunch. In fact, many of these are direct quotes that I use as a check-point during the week.

**Thanks to www.stocktwits.com for hosting. An excellent venue!

The market wants to tag $es 945 to 1060 on this run...then it should fail...its just a retest of old support

IWM - For broad exposure, I am looking at it should market continue. It has heavy fin exposure and catch up ability. I have always viewed the $46.51 level as very important here, which means it isn't too extended and just regaining some health. The $46.51 is the Oct 10th bottom before monster reversal. It has been the start of my channel support in IWM since then. While the 50 day sma is significant, the 50 day ema is more relevant in this volatile market and IWM was stopped cold there.

LONGS
CHKP - http://twitpic.com/1defu
BRCM - http://twitpic.com/1dedc
STLD - http://twitpic.com/1df75 - Here is one I'll be watching VERY closely.
INFY - http://twitpic.com/1deo2
VRSN - http://twitpic.com/1dfay
CWT - Really like that
ENSG - right at Jan 8th point - thin trade

SHORTS
BBBY - is one of my favorite 'daily' short setups going into this week. - http://twitpic.com/1dfkv

ESRX - http://twitpic.com/1dfpe - lived to fight another day in the QMan short world.
GILD - http://twitpic.com/1dfts - Yup, still short this one. Not stopped yet
SRCL - http://twitpic.com/1dfxr - Still a weekly short of mine
TEVA - http://twitpic.com/1dfyn - And of course, can't forget TEVA up 1% for the week
ATW - http://twitpic.com/1dg1j - has already started a constructive base, post break.
DO - http://twitpic.com/1dg34 - is one I'll be watching closely for potential entry.
LMDIA - http://twitpic.com/1dg4u - has already started to set up. High on my watch list.
MDCO - http://twitpic.com/1dg6b - on watch list as well
MXIM - http://twitpic.com/1dg81 - another i have been stalking. Not there yet