Ideas Week of 3/9/09

Ideas Week of 3/9/09

Disclaimer: The majority of these ideas come from the @Tickerville Saturday morning brunch. In fact, many of these are direct quotes that I use as a check-point during the week. Trade at your own risk. Any reference to "I" is from @tickerville. The blog author did not have time to grammatically update that piece this week.

**Thanks to www.stocktwits.com for hosting. An excellent venue!

I was not present for this week's brunch, so I if I miss something, please don't "shoot the messenger." Also, I am pilfering through 10 pages of search results, so I hope I capture the jist.

Nice message here: dmooney9: My TA training from @tickerville and @traderalamo let me put a good stop on $V and $CELG and hold off buying $NUE. Thanks guys. WOW! Enuf said!

Last week's mystery chart was a success! "One of my only meaningful trades was a $goog short which was last weeks mystery chart." "Here is last week's $GOOG chart http://twitpic.com/1r2wp How many could have made your week on this one trade?"

@ppearlman normally late fri covering no big deal but this had Rocky like force behind it. $SRS reversal spoke volumes.

The best I can tell is that the first hour was spent on trading, emotions, and "bottom calls", which I guess can be pretty close to booty calls, no? Just about as effective?!?! Sorry, I digress.

http://twitpic.com/1wl21 - Oil is something that has become technically attractive. I started $DXO this week.

STOPS: Stops should always be based on technical breaks, where the trade no longer works. You must calculate this before hand. If that stop strategy doesn't make sense. We have some work to do, let me explain.

Take your $TBT. Technically that is extremely attractive and only breaks down below $43. There is no reason to be stopped out there. You should use a reverse calculation to determine how much you are willing to lose should $TBT fall below $43. Say you are willing to risk $1,000 on the trade. Stock is $2.35 above stop, hence your share count will be 425.
This is probably the most important thing we have ever addressed in the Brunch and funny, that most will pay no attention to it.

OK, with an hour to go, let's talk some charts. We'll hash out more psychology next time.

XOM - http://twitpic.com/1wlvy - We've been stalking $XOM for a very long time. I am out now waiting for another entry.

GILD - One of my favorite shorts $GILD, we've been stalking for months, broke hard the last couple weeks. I want to re-enter here. http://twitpic.com/1wm17 $GILD high on radar.

So, considering my only short is $GOOG, let's prepare ourselves in the event we do bounce. One of the things I have learned is to never give up on a stock regardless of how many attempts you make.

FCX - http://twitpic.com/1wm53 I added $FCX again to my Minyanville public portfolio this week. One of the best long setups out there. What I like most about $FCX, is that the day after it broke (Thursday) it had a constructive pullback that allowed for entry.

CAB - http://twitpic.com/1wm8w $CAB is quite attractive. The break in $SWHC on Friday should set the tone here.

@BuyOnTheDip No comment on empty buildings but the $SRS reversal on Friday was incredible. I will be looking for follow through here down

One area I am particularly interested in is China. There is much noise surrounding this group, but technicals becoming interesting.

FXI - http://twitpic.com/1wmhm $FXI is really starting to interest me here.

BIDU - http://twitpic.com/1wmjs We don't have to like it, but we need to respect the $BIDU break.

CTRP - http://twitpic.com/1wmmh $CTRP is one I am watching in this area. I would play the break.

S - @zortrades I have a trend line drawn on $S connecting 11/4 top with 2/26. A break there would have me long.

NTES - http://twitpic.com/1wmtq Another china name that interests me $NTES

SNDA - http://twitpic.com/1wmvu $SNDA another China name for the list next week.

MYSTERY CHART TIME: The point always with mystery chart is to determine your course of action without a bias. Ironically, some will still have a bias and not remain open to change. These will be those that fight the trend to the upside.

http://twitpic.com/1wn6e Let's break down this mystery chart a bit. Thoughts?

Here is the daily: http://twitpic.com/1wnkk Mystery chart daily. Note the 3 trend lines.


The mystery chart is $EEM. Let's see how it plays out this week.