Disclaimer: The majority of these ideas come from the @Tickerville Saturday morning brunch. In fact, many of these are direct quotes that I use as a check-point during the week. Trade at your own risk. Any reference to "I" is from @tickerville. The blog author did not grammatically update that piece.
**Thanks to www.stocktwits.com for hosting. An excellent venue!
Gotta love bear market rallies..... S&P 500 10.71% and only looks like a blip on the big picture radar. I would have left about half my gains on the table this week, or not participated at all had I not let the charts speak.
We had an excellent run and cut up the bears pretty good. Many charts are short term extended. We must not chase. The key is that bulls have the ball. Let them fumble before pressing bear side. Why are so many interested in calling top of this move? Tape will always tell you all you need to know. Don't ever question the ticks, simply respect them.
Now.... let's say you didn't catch it. Let's say you sat idle waiting. DO NOT let anxiety get to you. Play your game not an emotional one.
Last week we talked about $FCX http://twitpic.com/1wm53 Here is a brief update: http://twitpic.com/2343k
> What I think is so important to note with $FCX is it took me 3 times to get this one right.
> So often after a trader gets stung once by a stock, they will not re-enter and try again. Pretend it is a different stock if you must.
> Ultimately some of the biggest moves come after a stock whips traders around and around.
Another example of try, try again: I entered $FCX a few months ago. Stopped for loss. Tried again a few weeks after that. Stopped. Again a few weeks ago. BAAM!
Here is a perfect example of that. I know many who got whipped around by $AMZN. The real move began this week. http://twitpic.com/234vj We have to study the character of any pullbacks. Look at $AMZN on Friday. That is healthy consolidation. I'll look to add.
That is why I am adamant about waiting for a move to happen. WHY anticipate.... But, how can you prevent an early move? The way to prevent it is to analyze it. Know yourself. Are you entering too early OR are you becoming biased after stopped. If you carry emotion in your trading, it is flawed. The market has NO emotion, so why should you? It's all probabilities.
Every trade I approach the same way. 1.) Where is stop. 2.) How many shares (Based on a $2k loss: THIS is diff for everyone) 3.) Take trade 4.) Take half off at 1x Risk 5.) Trail stop on remaining
I think volume is wreaking havoc with traders. I am playing price action with clear stops evaluating volume on a weekly basis.
We cannot control market, but we can control risk. Trading is ALL about that one simple thing.
As always, I strongly encourage everyone to review a chart for what it is... a picture. If you play the pictures you'll do quite well.
@tickerville If stocks X, Y, and Z are all exhibiting same price pattern would you take on full pos size on each? No I would not. I would then focus on an ETF. I keep a position limit to avoid running a mini-mutual fund. Here is another example: perfect example of what @stevenplace was discussing. Early in the week i saw semis setting up all over. I chose to play $USD, which was up 32% this week. The ETF's have become a beautiful way to play an entire move without subjecting yourself to individual stock risk.
Last week we talked about $CAB http://twitpic.com/1wm8w So far have been a spectator: http://twitpic.com/23459 Question about low volume move? I suspect volume comes but it is why I didn't play it. It moved in sympathy with $SWHC
I got stopped on $DXO this week and am looking to re-enter for a second time: http://twitpic.com/235h3/full
CHINA
Last week we kicked around China. This area did quite well and has shaped up technically. China names from last week did well with $CTRP being the winner 38.90%. I hope everyone nailed it! I took mine off but it was a good ride.
Two China names I am stalking on their weekly $SNDA and $NTES
Final China name to keep on radar $SOHU I tried and was stopped on Friday. I'll try again if it breaks. http://twitpic.com/235z4
SEMIS
Can anyone name the stealth sector that has rallied like crazy right behind the fins?? Semis..... $SMH http://twitpic.com/2363a
No question fins led the dance $XLF 32.52% but $SMH 13.96 and some of the best charts out there. Brush off that semi list boys and girls. Let's run through some of those pups. Now traditionally Semis can die quickly so STOPs.
I played $MRVL this week for small gain. I am looking for re-entry on consolidation. http://twitpic.com/2368j
We talked about $BRCM early in our brunch days. $18 was important level. I want into this name. http://twitpic.com/236ad
$AMAT another break. http://twitpic.com/236c1
How about a semi that is closer to re-entry than the others. $ATHR http://twitpic.com/236hx
Last semi for the day. $WFR http://twitpic.com/236ly
FINS
Now, what I love about the $XLF http://twitpic.com/236o6/full is the multiple areas of entry and stop you have. We all have a proper guide here. It already broke the steep trendline as noted by #1 as well a the lateral line #2. A pullback to kiss #1 would be fine but steep. Ideally, bulls would love to see a consolidation at or above line #2, setting up for an attack on #3 and ultimately #4. The key here on any pullback is NOT to give up #1 on a close. If this happens, we go to bunker & long live @upsidetrader and his Spartans.
The components are obviously mucho important. $GS, $MS, $WFC and $BAC are always on my screen.
Mystery Chart time
OK, let's go to Mystery Chart. You know how the game works. I put up a chart, we discuss WITHOUT knowing what it is.
I chuckled over last week. It was $EEM. All week I got e-mails telling me how terrible emerging mkt would be. I said 'pretend it's a fin' $EEM quietly up 10.71% on the week.
OK let's talk about this chart. There are no wrong thoughts. http://twitpic.com/23732
But we agree that volume is concerning? Let's dig deeper daily http://twitpic.com/237g3
Note on the daily chart that volume has been picking up and accumulation was there on break. BIG BAR! However hang man on Friday is also concerning, telling us it needs to consolidate a bit.
Answer: It's an obscure one, so I won't ask for guesses but it is $NVEC and the weekly has some of the best potential I have seen in a long time. I have the weekly on my radar but will look for entry on the daily. I will let the hang man resolve itself. We'll follow this one for a long time because if the weekly pennant breaks, this one is leadership.
IDEAS
Alright all, let's talk about some ideas for the coming week.
This is one of my favorite ideas for this week, but I'll wait on the name. http://twitpic.com/237qu The previous 'no name' long for this week was $ISRG.
Many commodities ran this week but several did not. $ACI is one I am watching closely. http://twitpic.com/2385j
$ANR is another I am watching closely. http://twitpic.com/2387g
$SHLD is the last idea I have time for. This is high on my radar for the week ahead. http://twitpic.com/238em
$PRU broke steep trend line. I'd be patient. http://twitpic.com/237tj/full
$MCD http://twitpic.com/237wl I was short $MCD for some time. If market falls apart, I will go here first.
I have been building a position in $UDN on this very chart. I will respect trend line. http://twitpic.com/2381o I am stopped on $UDN when the $UUP recovers that trend line. Until then I ride it.
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