Disclaimer: The majority of these ideas come from the @Tickerville Saturday morning brunch. In fact, many of these are direct quotes that I use as a check-point during the week. Trade at your own risk. Any reference to "I" is from @tickerville. The blog author did not grammatically update that piece.
**Thanks to StockTwits for hosting. An excellent venue!
OK, I gotta admit, this week was a tough one. We ultimately meandered with individual trades to be had throughout. All in all, we round out a darn good month.
Questions / Thoughts / Ideas
Wow, lots of meat and potatoes this week. Hope I keep everyone's attention. You have entered my real world and head.
Just follow the chart and don't think about 'stuff'. The chart won't lie.
There are clearly some things that concern me. I'll touch on them all. We've run a long way, could use some pain here.
How do you 'fish'? - e.g. how to find good setups with good risk/reward ratios? It is dangerous for new traders learning to fish. I have taught traders for many years now. It seems that as soon as I begin with someone they want to find new ideas. I ask them always why are they so interested in finding stocks? Why not just play the ones others have already found.
Ultimately, what they don't understand is, it is not the stock that makes you money. It is the trading that makes you money. The first thing I instruct new traders to do is to stop looking for new stocks and start looking AT the stocks we're playing.
The BEST traders I know, focus on 100 or so core stocks and that's it. Some of the premier traders trade only e-minis. Why? Because they know that making money is not about finding a good vehicle, it is about learning to drive ANY vehicle. That is why Tiger Woods could clean my clock using only 1 club, yet I still believe the Nike blades will help my game. LOL Nope
OK, last week we talked quite a bit about the 'health' of the pullback. So many were looking to short, but we concluded that was wrong. The pullback had the proper character of being healthy and was needed after the fast and furious run. Now let's look at S&P and discuss.
Here is daily S&P 500. You can see we still have run quite a ways with big resistance overhead. CHART I have labeled an area on the chart that says 'Fair Game' to show just how much open space we have that we could pull back. But my point in this chart, is to understand we could go back quite a ways, and still put in significant higher low. So understand that, and should the bears start coming out and chest pounding, be on the look out for reversal and snap city.
Those looking to swing trade, must know that we could easily pull back to anywhere in this area and still put in a higher low. This is a reason you won't hear me talking about longer term shorts for a LONG time, unless we start challenging March lows. I will take shorts if they present day trading opportunities, but as swings, very unlikely.
Ideally, what I would LOVE to see happen, is for us to digest this recent move in some form or fashion. Sideways or down. If we continue to go higher without consolidation, it will make playing with size much harder because there is no clear support area. So, the point is...It's all about mindset, and more important THAN EVER at this stage is understanding your time frame. Meaning, if you're a day trader, you shouldn't care about that chart. You simply play the direction OF THE DAY. But if you're a swing trader as I am, you need to understand where the big river is flowing. Right now it is flowing up.
Let me recant something however, as there are individual sectors that do look interesting to me for swing shorts. IBB I started Friday.
Now, how about the QQQQ. This is a picture of clear leadership here. http://bit.ly/12zIuv Note how it already broke the big trend line going back to October, however has come right into overhead resistance from Jan and Feb. This is a very logical pullback point and any area into the Fair Game section is ok. This is the area we must keep on our radar.
So, now we have S&P, and QQQQ all looking extended, but much improved. Could pull back quite a way and still remain healthy.
Lastly, the heart and soul of the tape. The fins, ala XLF. Let's break her down. This next chart is the most important. Can anyone tell me why? They led us from the start, with everything following. http://bit.ly/lNPvc
This is so very important to understand. All rallies we have seen until this one, was led by garbage. Crushed commods coming up for air. Each time, stocks like steel, copper, coal energy etc, would run but nothing else sustained momentum. This time, we started a rally based on financials, and stealth sectors like Semiconductors saw massive inflows of money.
So, when I review this XLF chart, I see our biggest tell on where we go from here. When it breaks in either direction it will tell us. So, if you want to look like a genius. Keep the XLF in front of you and watch for a break down or a break up, out of the box. Then you can feel confident playing other sectors.
Understanding this, is what took me to heavy cash, because I did not like how the fins stagnated to end the week. So now I am in waiting mode to see. It's simple. $9.70 up, $8.67 down. I was initially concerned about the $XLF but when i review daily chart I see sideways action. We don't have to know the catalyst or care about it, much less agree with it. We just have to respect the chart movement. I am watching the Nov low. I think that is important.
Tech is leading us in % terms. No question, but they were more healthy than fins. Fins are our tell, like the engine. But trust me, if fins cooperate, areas like Semiconductors is where I want to be. That is seeing the new money flow in. I hope all that makes sense. We are at a critical juncture and to remain truly open minded and flexible, means you understand the tape.
Now, let's talk about a few things that concern me a bit, but I have to be careful not to cross into macro land. If market is running, why are commods not really participating? Glad that they didn't lead us, but they're really lagging.
Even though I work in silence, I still hear everyone yapping about re-inflation, yet the moves just aren't there yet. But, maybe we just have to be patient and give these charts time. It is why I keep coming back to them, wondering if they bust out soon because, this week a few areas showed up that would make sense to start a run here.
Rails and Infrastructure and these are areas I want to be in . Let's look at some charts.
Chart Time
CSX is one of my favorites that broke out on Thursday. The consolidation on Friday was very healthy. http://bit.ly/zF0yZ As noted in that chart, I would use 1 more day of weakness to start my position with a stop below Thursday's low.
NSC has a similar pattern yet I like the risk reward on $CSX better. http://bit.ly/RC3J0
I see excellent volume coming into these rail charts. So, rails have started to percolate. Interesting to note because as @aiki14 mentioned they transport 'stuff'. Yes, RAIL and ARII on my list as momo plays in the group.
Next up, and also interesting to note, that infrastructure plays started making themselves known this week.
JEC broke out of a multi-month trend line after consolidating early move. http://bit.ly/11Nyt
MDR also consolidating nicely above recent lateral break. http://bit.ly/tQVLr
And last but not least, the big boys who have not run and are lagging.
FLR http://bit.ly/MOLbK
FWLT http://bit.ly/4UTL
So, maybe not all trade worthy, but MUST go into the game plan. We have rails perking, infrastructure perking but commods lagging. It either means the run in the first 2 is short lived, or the 3rd will follow suit very soon. I think it is prudent for us to prepare for either. What you hopefully can see me doing and my whole point of this is how we can use charts to find themes. If commods follow suit soon, or actually lead after some consolidation, the media will paint it one way, but we'll have known far ahead.
Before we get into some other trade ideas, I want to talk about one chart that is rather concerning to me. I am long GLD and may cut. I am long GLD and starting to get a little anxious. I would suspect it to have followed through by now. http://bit.ly/pAbZG It needs to get back above the weekly trend lines ASAP or I cut it and move on. It also bothers me that it is the inflation 'no brainer' Whenever something is said to be a no-brainer, I get cautious.
Requests
GS broke over multi-month base. It can come in, but not too much. 50 day is important. http://twitpic.com/2bcwf
MOS which I like quite a bit. I want to re-enter. http://bit.ly/3B1rh
I like VMW quite a bit. watching and waiting. http://bit.ly/anzr
Lots of requests for O&G area. This sure is an area that looks like it could go either way. I believe this next chart shows the front lines of the battle in the O&G area. This chart will act as a big guide for me. I can make bullish argument and bearish for this chart. Outcome will tell me SOOO much about the group. http://bit.ly/16hUW2
Note the battle going on here in SLB. Again, bullish and bearish. Ultimate break will tell me where drillers go. http://bit.ly/DzO2
Much talk about commods and potential. I think this chart shows just how much potential http://bit.ly/cFV6T I want to participate in a move like that re: X even if it just comes back to the trend line resistance don't you?
RS Another Steel on my radar http://bit.ly/22UwCj
Lots of talk about commods. BTU is an attractive candidate should it break. http://twitpic.com/2bcmo/full
NBR is another I am watching closely for a similar trend break pattern. http://twitpic.com/2bcqn/full
Saturday, March 28, 2009
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Yes, I do read all those blogs
Yes, I do read all those blogs on my site. Here are the charts I found interesting and maybe you will too.
STI - SunTrust Bank
http://bit.ly/A2ir
VMW - VM Ware
http://bit.ly/UMgfw
SOLR - GT Solar
http://bit.ly/ABs1y
VIX - you know what it is...
http://bit.ly/Rqp91
QQQQ - Nasdaq ETF (thanks Mr Upsidetrader)
http://bit.ly/xB3H
QLD - Ultra Q
http://bit.ly/ThMym
HGG - HH Gregg - a play on Best Buy
http://bit.ly/zOJa5
TSYS - Telecommunications Systems
http://bit.ly/1YYpzd
EGO - Eldorado Gold - (love that symbol, don't you)
http://bit.ly/w9VtM
STI - SunTrust Bank
http://bit.ly/A2ir
VMW - VM Ware
http://bit.ly/UMgfw
SOLR - GT Solar
http://bit.ly/ABs1y
VIX - you know what it is...
http://bit.ly/Rqp91
QQQQ - Nasdaq ETF (thanks Mr Upsidetrader)
http://bit.ly/xB3H
QLD - Ultra Q
http://bit.ly/ThMym
HGG - HH Gregg - a play on Best Buy
http://bit.ly/zOJa5
TSYS - Telecommunications Systems
http://bit.ly/1YYpzd
EGO - Eldorado Gold - (love that symbol, don't you)
http://bit.ly/w9VtM
Saturday, March 21, 2009
Ideas for the Week of 3/23/09
Disclaimer: The majority of these ideas come from the @Tickerville Saturday morning brunch. In fact, many of these are direct quotes that I use as a check-point during the week. Trade at your own risk. Any reference to "I" is from @tickerville. The blog author did not grammatically update that piece.
**Thanks to StockTwits for hosting. An excellent venue!
Weekly Recap
S&P 500 up 1.58%, NAZ up 1.80%.
Before we recap some of what we talked about last week, I want to break down the indices a bit. The reason I want to start with these 2 charts is to establish the foundation that bulls still have the ball until they don't. I think if it was ultimate bottom we'd see bigger bars. For now it still is what it is, bear market rally.
S&P 500, we often talk about constructive pullbacks. So far this is precisely what we're seeing here. http://twitpic.com/2b8jr When I review that S&P chart, I see a V shape reversal that is now starting to be digested. Close below Nov lows would be danger sign. Friday looks like massive distribution but don't be fooled as it was options expiration, skewing volume tremendously. So, in summary, S&P still looks good to me, and I am looking to redeploy should this constructive nature continue. Ideas in 2nd hour.
Next up, QQQQ this is quite interesting and an area I am stalking very closely. QQQQ chart I am stalking and like the pullback quite a bit. I suspect the Nov trend line could break on a shake. http://twitpic.com/2b8si
We have talked about FCX for many weeks now. It has been a big winner. I took sold it and am out for now. Same goes for AMZN which had a nice run. I am back on the sidelines and watching this leader.
We talked about CAB over the last 2 weeks and I mentioned I was still a spectator. I did not enter and won't as it is too chaotic
Now, some ongoing themes that I am still watching closely for areas of re-entry.
2 areas I am watching very closely are China and Semis. FXI has been good and still looks decent. http://twitpic.com/2b9ds FXI is improving a great deal and gives me confidence to continue looking at the individual china names.
I have a very interesting routine in that I'll often become interested in a major sector after finding a series of indv. charts. Once I identify the group, I'll then watch the ETF for the big picture clues on whether or not to keep playing those indv. charts.
Favorite tech sector continues to be Semis. They started consolidating the recent run. the 50 day will be key. http://twitpic.com/2b9j5
Now, last but not least, the heart and soul of the market. The fins. We broke this down last week here: http://bit.ly/Qvde
We should all know this chart by heart. Its the key to the entire market. Don't let anyone tell you differently. http://twitpic.com/2b9qp
Now, let's talk activity. Once I unloaded on Wed, I did squat the rest of the week. If I had a boat I would have pulled a Livermore. In summary, I like what I am seeing out there from the long side. I am about 98% cash waiting for my fat pitch.
What makes me nervous about the commods is that everyone is now watching them. However the setups are there. More to follow.
Another thing I want to hit on that we spoke of a lot last week is re-entries. We talked about just how important it is to try and try again, regardless of how many times you are stopped out. In years passed I would swear off a stock after a failed attempt only to see it run without me. I will now play it 100 times if I have to and while I may throw some things in my office while that happens, I'll keep at it.
Example: A few weeks ago, we started discussing DXO and last week i talked about how I was stopped on my first attempt. This week it broke again presenting another great long opportunity. I took it and profited nicely. Chart is saying it goes higher. http://twitpic.com/2baxe I will now be waiting for another setup to add shares.
STOPS
So many will set a fixed stop based on a certain % or a certain $$ amount. I think this is very wrong and quite dangerous. To say you are going to enter XYZ with a stop 10% below your entry, is a guess and again, very dangerous. Stops begin first and foremost with the plan surrounding the trade.
Let's look at a specific example on what exactly I would do. Let's look at WFR again. The trend line here would be my critical point. http://twitpic.com/2bb6s If I looked at this stock I may conclude that I would enter a position on a move BACK above the trend line which is around 15.25. My stop strategy is unique in that on the day of the break, I will first use the day low as my stop. So let's assume that on Monday the stock opens at 14.70 and has the break out above $15.25 sometime during the day. My initial stop would be at day low, or a move back below 14.70. This is to avoid getting snagged too bad on an intra-day reversal.
Now, I do have a few caveats that I have developed over the years that are very important. If the break out is $15.25 and the stock does NOT close above this break out. Meaning it broke, then failed, I will NOT hold it overnight. I have seen this happen time and again which ultimately traps longs.
If however the stock does hold the break out point, I will then move my stop TO the breakout point, and typically use an end of day rule. Meaning that I will allow it to go back below the trend intra-day but if it closes below that line, I'll be out.
I think traders MUST understand that it is the pattern that determines their stops.
Remember what we talked about last week. Once you determine your stop, you can then fully quantify your risk, meaning share count. So, in the case of WFR if you determine that your entry / stop is .55 (15.25 - 14.79) you can calc your total share count. This will be different for everyone based on how much you chose to risk on each trade. This will also depend on market. I will sometimes risk as little as $500 on each trade or as much as $20k, but once I know that my stop is .55 , I can then determine my share count with a little math.
In today's market I have had a simple rule. When I reach 1 times my risk , I take half off and adjust my stop up to my entry. Now, after that, some use trailing stops. However I chose to adjust my stops once the pattern shows its hand.
Here are some requested stocks:
SLX, broke your 26 on huge volume, then pulled back on very light volume. I think it is improving a great deal.
I like both of these.
WFR: http://twitpic.com/2ba16
IYM: http://twitpic.com/2ba1c I like quite a bit but like most it needs to set up again.
I like BRCM quite a bit. http://twitpic.com/2ba5a
ACI one of my favorite potential longs. http://twitpic.com/2ba9h
UNG had a nice move this week but it has been a suckers trap each time. I have to see it set up. I am playing DXO
I am short the dollar via UDN and will continue to ride the trend.
UGA above 24 looks nice, would like to see a pullback but good accumulation so far.
SLX is a commod key. They have everything going against them yet are improving. http://twitpic.com/2baha
CAF not the one I would play, but FXI back towards 50 day is for me.
IDEAS
A key to market is AAPL. It is acting well and could be setting up for move higher. http://twitpic.com/2bc1z
My dear friend and phenom trader @prakasht says 'GOOG is the market' http://twitpic.com/2bcd6 This will be ultimate tell. I am preparing to play GOOG in either direction when the actual break takes place.
Oh, don't get me wrong. Fins are heart and soul of market. They'll decide, but GOOG break in either direction must be played.
My strategy this week is simple, to stalk and play that which I see setting up. GOOG and AAPL are 2 examples.
Lots of talk about commods. BTU is an attractive candidate should it break. http://twitpic.com/2bcmo
NBR is another I am watching closely for a similar trend break pattern. http://twitpic.com/2bcqn
GS broke over multi-month base. It can come in, but not too much. 50day is important. http://twitpic.com/2bcwf
**Thanks to StockTwits for hosting. An excellent venue!
Weekly Recap
S&P 500 up 1.58%, NAZ up 1.80%.
Before we recap some of what we talked about last week, I want to break down the indices a bit. The reason I want to start with these 2 charts is to establish the foundation that bulls still have the ball until they don't. I think if it was ultimate bottom we'd see bigger bars. For now it still is what it is, bear market rally.
S&P 500, we often talk about constructive pullbacks. So far this is precisely what we're seeing here. http://twitpic.com/2b8jr When I review that S&P chart, I see a V shape reversal that is now starting to be digested. Close below Nov lows would be danger sign. Friday looks like massive distribution but don't be fooled as it was options expiration, skewing volume tremendously. So, in summary, S&P still looks good to me, and I am looking to redeploy should this constructive nature continue. Ideas in 2nd hour.
Next up, QQQQ this is quite interesting and an area I am stalking very closely. QQQQ chart I am stalking and like the pullback quite a bit. I suspect the Nov trend line could break on a shake. http://twitpic.com/2b8si
We have talked about FCX for many weeks now. It has been a big winner. I took sold it and am out for now. Same goes for AMZN which had a nice run. I am back on the sidelines and watching this leader.
We talked about CAB over the last 2 weeks and I mentioned I was still a spectator. I did not enter and won't as it is too chaotic
Now, some ongoing themes that I am still watching closely for areas of re-entry.
2 areas I am watching very closely are China and Semis. FXI has been good and still looks decent. http://twitpic.com/2b9ds FXI is improving a great deal and gives me confidence to continue looking at the individual china names.
I have a very interesting routine in that I'll often become interested in a major sector after finding a series of indv. charts. Once I identify the group, I'll then watch the ETF for the big picture clues on whether or not to keep playing those indv. charts.
Favorite tech sector continues to be Semis. They started consolidating the recent run. the 50 day will be key. http://twitpic.com/2b9j5
Now, last but not least, the heart and soul of the market. The fins. We broke this down last week here: http://bit.ly/Qvde
We should all know this chart by heart. Its the key to the entire market. Don't let anyone tell you differently. http://twitpic.com/2b9qp
Now, let's talk activity. Once I unloaded on Wed, I did squat the rest of the week. If I had a boat I would have pulled a Livermore. In summary, I like what I am seeing out there from the long side. I am about 98% cash waiting for my fat pitch.
What makes me nervous about the commods is that everyone is now watching them. However the setups are there. More to follow.
Another thing I want to hit on that we spoke of a lot last week is re-entries. We talked about just how important it is to try and try again, regardless of how many times you are stopped out. In years passed I would swear off a stock after a failed attempt only to see it run without me. I will now play it 100 times if I have to and while I may throw some things in my office while that happens, I'll keep at it.
Example: A few weeks ago, we started discussing DXO and last week i talked about how I was stopped on my first attempt. This week it broke again presenting another great long opportunity. I took it and profited nicely. Chart is saying it goes higher. http://twitpic.com/2baxe I will now be waiting for another setup to add shares.
STOPS
So many will set a fixed stop based on a certain % or a certain $$ amount. I think this is very wrong and quite dangerous. To say you are going to enter XYZ with a stop 10% below your entry, is a guess and again, very dangerous. Stops begin first and foremost with the plan surrounding the trade.
Let's look at a specific example on what exactly I would do. Let's look at WFR again. The trend line here would be my critical point. http://twitpic.com/2bb6s If I looked at this stock I may conclude that I would enter a position on a move BACK above the trend line which is around 15.25. My stop strategy is unique in that on the day of the break, I will first use the day low as my stop. So let's assume that on Monday the stock opens at 14.70 and has the break out above $15.25 sometime during the day. My initial stop would be at day low, or a move back below 14.70. This is to avoid getting snagged too bad on an intra-day reversal.
Now, I do have a few caveats that I have developed over the years that are very important. If the break out is $15.25 and the stock does NOT close above this break out. Meaning it broke, then failed, I will NOT hold it overnight. I have seen this happen time and again which ultimately traps longs.
If however the stock does hold the break out point, I will then move my stop TO the breakout point, and typically use an end of day rule. Meaning that I will allow it to go back below the trend intra-day but if it closes below that line, I'll be out.
I think traders MUST understand that it is the pattern that determines their stops.
Remember what we talked about last week. Once you determine your stop, you can then fully quantify your risk, meaning share count. So, in the case of WFR if you determine that your entry / stop is .55 (15.25 - 14.79) you can calc your total share count. This will be different for everyone based on how much you chose to risk on each trade. This will also depend on market. I will sometimes risk as little as $500 on each trade or as much as $20k, but once I know that my stop is .55 , I can then determine my share count with a little math.
In today's market I have had a simple rule. When I reach 1 times my risk , I take half off and adjust my stop up to my entry. Now, after that, some use trailing stops. However I chose to adjust my stops once the pattern shows its hand.
Here are some requested stocks:
SLX, broke your 26 on huge volume, then pulled back on very light volume. I think it is improving a great deal.
I like both of these.
WFR: http://twitpic.com/2ba16
IYM: http://twitpic.com/2ba1c I like quite a bit but like most it needs to set up again.
I like BRCM quite a bit. http://twitpic.com/2ba5a
ACI one of my favorite potential longs. http://twitpic.com/2ba9h
UNG had a nice move this week but it has been a suckers trap each time. I have to see it set up. I am playing DXO
I am short the dollar via UDN and will continue to ride the trend.
UGA above 24 looks nice, would like to see a pullback but good accumulation so far.
SLX is a commod key. They have everything going against them yet are improving. http://twitpic.com/2baha
CAF not the one I would play, but FXI back towards 50 day is for me.
IDEAS
A key to market is AAPL. It is acting well and could be setting up for move higher. http://twitpic.com/2bc1z
My dear friend and phenom trader @prakasht says 'GOOG is the market' http://twitpic.com/2bcd6 This will be ultimate tell. I am preparing to play GOOG in either direction when the actual break takes place.
Oh, don't get me wrong. Fins are heart and soul of market. They'll decide, but GOOG break in either direction must be played.
My strategy this week is simple, to stalk and play that which I see setting up. GOOG and AAPL are 2 examples.
Lots of talk about commods. BTU is an attractive candidate should it break. http://twitpic.com/2bcmo
NBR is another I am watching closely for a similar trend break pattern. http://twitpic.com/2bcqn
GS broke over multi-month base. It can come in, but not too much. 50day is important. http://twitpic.com/2bcwf
Saturday, March 14, 2009
Ideas Week of 3/16/09
Disclaimer: The majority of these ideas come from the @Tickerville Saturday morning brunch. In fact, many of these are direct quotes that I use as a check-point during the week. Trade at your own risk. Any reference to "I" is from @tickerville. The blog author did not grammatically update that piece.
**Thanks to www.stocktwits.com for hosting. An excellent venue!
Gotta love bear market rallies..... S&P 500 10.71% and only looks like a blip on the big picture radar. I would have left about half my gains on the table this week, or not participated at all had I not let the charts speak.
We had an excellent run and cut up the bears pretty good. Many charts are short term extended. We must not chase. The key is that bulls have the ball. Let them fumble before pressing bear side. Why are so many interested in calling top of this move? Tape will always tell you all you need to know. Don't ever question the ticks, simply respect them.
Now.... let's say you didn't catch it. Let's say you sat idle waiting. DO NOT let anxiety get to you. Play your game not an emotional one.
Last week we talked about $FCX http://twitpic.com/1wm53 Here is a brief update: http://twitpic.com/2343k
> What I think is so important to note with $FCX is it took me 3 times to get this one right.
> So often after a trader gets stung once by a stock, they will not re-enter and try again. Pretend it is a different stock if you must.
> Ultimately some of the biggest moves come after a stock whips traders around and around.
Another example of try, try again: I entered $FCX a few months ago. Stopped for loss. Tried again a few weeks after that. Stopped. Again a few weeks ago. BAAM!
Here is a perfect example of that. I know many who got whipped around by $AMZN. The real move began this week. http://twitpic.com/234vj We have to study the character of any pullbacks. Look at $AMZN on Friday. That is healthy consolidation. I'll look to add.
That is why I am adamant about waiting for a move to happen. WHY anticipate.... But, how can you prevent an early move? The way to prevent it is to analyze it. Know yourself. Are you entering too early OR are you becoming biased after stopped. If you carry emotion in your trading, it is flawed. The market has NO emotion, so why should you? It's all probabilities.
Every trade I approach the same way. 1.) Where is stop. 2.) How many shares (Based on a $2k loss: THIS is diff for everyone) 3.) Take trade 4.) Take half off at 1x Risk 5.) Trail stop on remaining
I think volume is wreaking havoc with traders. I am playing price action with clear stops evaluating volume on a weekly basis.
We cannot control market, but we can control risk. Trading is ALL about that one simple thing.
As always, I strongly encourage everyone to review a chart for what it is... a picture. If you play the pictures you'll do quite well.
@tickerville If stocks X, Y, and Z are all exhibiting same price pattern would you take on full pos size on each? No I would not. I would then focus on an ETF. I keep a position limit to avoid running a mini-mutual fund. Here is another example: perfect example of what @stevenplace was discussing. Early in the week i saw semis setting up all over. I chose to play $USD, which was up 32% this week. The ETF's have become a beautiful way to play an entire move without subjecting yourself to individual stock risk.
Last week we talked about $CAB http://twitpic.com/1wm8w So far have been a spectator: http://twitpic.com/23459 Question about low volume move? I suspect volume comes but it is why I didn't play it. It moved in sympathy with $SWHC
I got stopped on $DXO this week and am looking to re-enter for a second time: http://twitpic.com/235h3/full
CHINA
Last week we kicked around China. This area did quite well and has shaped up technically. China names from last week did well with $CTRP being the winner 38.90%. I hope everyone nailed it! I took mine off but it was a good ride.
Two China names I am stalking on their weekly $SNDA and $NTES
Final China name to keep on radar $SOHU I tried and was stopped on Friday. I'll try again if it breaks. http://twitpic.com/235z4
SEMIS
Can anyone name the stealth sector that has rallied like crazy right behind the fins?? Semis..... $SMH http://twitpic.com/2363a
No question fins led the dance $XLF 32.52% but $SMH 13.96 and some of the best charts out there. Brush off that semi list boys and girls. Let's run through some of those pups. Now traditionally Semis can die quickly so STOPs.
I played $MRVL this week for small gain. I am looking for re-entry on consolidation. http://twitpic.com/2368j
We talked about $BRCM early in our brunch days. $18 was important level. I want into this name. http://twitpic.com/236ad
$AMAT another break. http://twitpic.com/236c1
How about a semi that is closer to re-entry than the others. $ATHR http://twitpic.com/236hx
Last semi for the day. $WFR http://twitpic.com/236ly
FINS
Now, what I love about the $XLF http://twitpic.com/236o6/full is the multiple areas of entry and stop you have. We all have a proper guide here. It already broke the steep trendline as noted by #1 as well a the lateral line #2. A pullback to kiss #1 would be fine but steep. Ideally, bulls would love to see a consolidation at or above line #2, setting up for an attack on #3 and ultimately #4. The key here on any pullback is NOT to give up #1 on a close. If this happens, we go to bunker & long live @upsidetrader and his Spartans.
The components are obviously mucho important. $GS, $MS, $WFC and $BAC are always on my screen.
Mystery Chart time
OK, let's go to Mystery Chart. You know how the game works. I put up a chart, we discuss WITHOUT knowing what it is.
I chuckled over last week. It was $EEM. All week I got e-mails telling me how terrible emerging mkt would be. I said 'pretend it's a fin' $EEM quietly up 10.71% on the week.
OK let's talk about this chart. There are no wrong thoughts. http://twitpic.com/23732
But we agree that volume is concerning? Let's dig deeper daily http://twitpic.com/237g3
Note on the daily chart that volume has been picking up and accumulation was there on break. BIG BAR! However hang man on Friday is also concerning, telling us it needs to consolidate a bit.
Answer: It's an obscure one, so I won't ask for guesses but it is $NVEC and the weekly has some of the best potential I have seen in a long time. I have the weekly on my radar but will look for entry on the daily. I will let the hang man resolve itself. We'll follow this one for a long time because if the weekly pennant breaks, this one is leadership.
IDEAS
Alright all, let's talk about some ideas for the coming week.
This is one of my favorite ideas for this week, but I'll wait on the name. http://twitpic.com/237qu The previous 'no name' long for this week was $ISRG.
Many commodities ran this week but several did not. $ACI is one I am watching closely. http://twitpic.com/2385j
$ANR is another I am watching closely. http://twitpic.com/2387g
$SHLD is the last idea I have time for. This is high on my radar for the week ahead. http://twitpic.com/238em
$PRU broke steep trend line. I'd be patient. http://twitpic.com/237tj/full
$MCD http://twitpic.com/237wl I was short $MCD for some time. If market falls apart, I will go here first.
I have been building a position in $UDN on this very chart. I will respect trend line. http://twitpic.com/2381o I am stopped on $UDN when the $UUP recovers that trend line. Until then I ride it.
**Thanks to www.stocktwits.com for hosting. An excellent venue!
Gotta love bear market rallies..... S&P 500 10.71% and only looks like a blip on the big picture radar. I would have left about half my gains on the table this week, or not participated at all had I not let the charts speak.
We had an excellent run and cut up the bears pretty good. Many charts are short term extended. We must not chase. The key is that bulls have the ball. Let them fumble before pressing bear side. Why are so many interested in calling top of this move? Tape will always tell you all you need to know. Don't ever question the ticks, simply respect them.
Now.... let's say you didn't catch it. Let's say you sat idle waiting. DO NOT let anxiety get to you. Play your game not an emotional one.
Last week we talked about $FCX http://twitpic.com/1wm53 Here is a brief update: http://twitpic.com/2343k
> What I think is so important to note with $FCX is it took me 3 times to get this one right.
> So often after a trader gets stung once by a stock, they will not re-enter and try again. Pretend it is a different stock if you must.
> Ultimately some of the biggest moves come after a stock whips traders around and around.
Another example of try, try again: I entered $FCX a few months ago. Stopped for loss. Tried again a few weeks after that. Stopped. Again a few weeks ago. BAAM!
Here is a perfect example of that. I know many who got whipped around by $AMZN. The real move began this week. http://twitpic.com/234vj We have to study the character of any pullbacks. Look at $AMZN on Friday. That is healthy consolidation. I'll look to add.
That is why I am adamant about waiting for a move to happen. WHY anticipate.... But, how can you prevent an early move? The way to prevent it is to analyze it. Know yourself. Are you entering too early OR are you becoming biased after stopped. If you carry emotion in your trading, it is flawed. The market has NO emotion, so why should you? It's all probabilities.
Every trade I approach the same way. 1.) Where is stop. 2.) How many shares (Based on a $2k loss: THIS is diff for everyone) 3.) Take trade 4.) Take half off at 1x Risk 5.) Trail stop on remaining
I think volume is wreaking havoc with traders. I am playing price action with clear stops evaluating volume on a weekly basis.
We cannot control market, but we can control risk. Trading is ALL about that one simple thing.
As always, I strongly encourage everyone to review a chart for what it is... a picture. If you play the pictures you'll do quite well.
@tickerville If stocks X, Y, and Z are all exhibiting same price pattern would you take on full pos size on each? No I would not. I would then focus on an ETF. I keep a position limit to avoid running a mini-mutual fund. Here is another example: perfect example of what @stevenplace was discussing. Early in the week i saw semis setting up all over. I chose to play $USD, which was up 32% this week. The ETF's have become a beautiful way to play an entire move without subjecting yourself to individual stock risk.
Last week we talked about $CAB http://twitpic.com/1wm8w So far have been a spectator: http://twitpic.com/23459 Question about low volume move? I suspect volume comes but it is why I didn't play it. It moved in sympathy with $SWHC
I got stopped on $DXO this week and am looking to re-enter for a second time: http://twitpic.com/235h3/full
CHINA
Last week we kicked around China. This area did quite well and has shaped up technically. China names from last week did well with $CTRP being the winner 38.90%. I hope everyone nailed it! I took mine off but it was a good ride.
Two China names I am stalking on their weekly $SNDA and $NTES
Final China name to keep on radar $SOHU I tried and was stopped on Friday. I'll try again if it breaks. http://twitpic.com/235z4
SEMIS
Can anyone name the stealth sector that has rallied like crazy right behind the fins?? Semis..... $SMH http://twitpic.com/2363a
No question fins led the dance $XLF 32.52% but $SMH 13.96 and some of the best charts out there. Brush off that semi list boys and girls. Let's run through some of those pups. Now traditionally Semis can die quickly so STOPs.
I played $MRVL this week for small gain. I am looking for re-entry on consolidation. http://twitpic.com/2368j
We talked about $BRCM early in our brunch days. $18 was important level. I want into this name. http://twitpic.com/236ad
$AMAT another break. http://twitpic.com/236c1
How about a semi that is closer to re-entry than the others. $ATHR http://twitpic.com/236hx
Last semi for the day. $WFR http://twitpic.com/236ly
FINS
Now, what I love about the $XLF http://twitpic.com/236o6/full is the multiple areas of entry and stop you have. We all have a proper guide here. It already broke the steep trendline as noted by #1 as well a the lateral line #2. A pullback to kiss #1 would be fine but steep. Ideally, bulls would love to see a consolidation at or above line #2, setting up for an attack on #3 and ultimately #4. The key here on any pullback is NOT to give up #1 on a close. If this happens, we go to bunker & long live @upsidetrader and his Spartans.
The components are obviously mucho important. $GS, $MS, $WFC and $BAC are always on my screen.
Mystery Chart time
OK, let's go to Mystery Chart. You know how the game works. I put up a chart, we discuss WITHOUT knowing what it is.
I chuckled over last week. It was $EEM. All week I got e-mails telling me how terrible emerging mkt would be. I said 'pretend it's a fin' $EEM quietly up 10.71% on the week.
OK let's talk about this chart. There are no wrong thoughts. http://twitpic.com/23732
But we agree that volume is concerning? Let's dig deeper daily http://twitpic.com/237g3
Note on the daily chart that volume has been picking up and accumulation was there on break. BIG BAR! However hang man on Friday is also concerning, telling us it needs to consolidate a bit.
Answer: It's an obscure one, so I won't ask for guesses but it is $NVEC and the weekly has some of the best potential I have seen in a long time. I have the weekly on my radar but will look for entry on the daily. I will let the hang man resolve itself. We'll follow this one for a long time because if the weekly pennant breaks, this one is leadership.
IDEAS
Alright all, let's talk about some ideas for the coming week.
This is one of my favorite ideas for this week, but I'll wait on the name. http://twitpic.com/237qu The previous 'no name' long for this week was $ISRG.
Many commodities ran this week but several did not. $ACI is one I am watching closely. http://twitpic.com/2385j
$ANR is another I am watching closely. http://twitpic.com/2387g
$SHLD is the last idea I have time for. This is high on my radar for the week ahead. http://twitpic.com/238em
$PRU broke steep trend line. I'd be patient. http://twitpic.com/237tj/full
$MCD http://twitpic.com/237wl I was short $MCD for some time. If market falls apart, I will go here first.
I have been building a position in $UDN on this very chart. I will respect trend line. http://twitpic.com/2381o I am stopped on $UDN when the $UUP recovers that trend line. Until then I ride it.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
hanging out, drinking, and talking stocks
Here are ideas that were interesting to me after hanging out, drinking, and talking stocks with @stevenplace at www.investingwithoptions.com
CTRP – higher lows
KMB – short
WFR – coiling
PBR – higher lows – break above 30-31
USO – or USL
FXI – 28-32
YHOO – gap fill to 15
AEM – bearish
FCX – bullish
Brevity is the soul of wit...so do your own research and make your own decisions.
CTRP – higher lows
KMB – short
WFR – coiling
PBR – higher lows – break above 30-31
USO – or USL
FXI – 28-32
YHOO – gap fill to 15
AEM – bearish
FCX – bullish
Brevity is the soul of wit...so do your own research and make your own decisions.
Saturday, March 7, 2009
Ideas Week of 3/9/09
Ideas Week of 3/9/09
Disclaimer: The majority of these ideas come from the @Tickerville Saturday morning brunch. In fact, many of these are direct quotes that I use as a check-point during the week. Trade at your own risk. Any reference to "I" is from @tickerville. The blog author did not have time to grammatically update that piece this week.
**Thanks to www.stocktwits.com for hosting. An excellent venue!
I was not present for this week's brunch, so I if I miss something, please don't "shoot the messenger." Also, I am pilfering through 10 pages of search results, so I hope I capture the jist.
Nice message here: dmooney9: My TA training from @tickerville and @traderalamo let me put a good stop on $V and $CELG and hold off buying $NUE. Thanks guys. WOW! Enuf said!
Last week's mystery chart was a success! "One of my only meaningful trades was a $goog short which was last weeks mystery chart." "Here is last week's $GOOG chart http://twitpic.com/1r2wp How many could have made your week on this one trade?"
@ppearlman normally late fri covering no big deal but this had Rocky like force behind it. $SRS reversal spoke volumes.
The best I can tell is that the first hour was spent on trading, emotions, and "bottom calls", which I guess can be pretty close to booty calls, no? Just about as effective?!?! Sorry, I digress.
http://twitpic.com/1wl21 - Oil is something that has become technically attractive. I started $DXO this week.
STOPS: Stops should always be based on technical breaks, where the trade no longer works. You must calculate this before hand. If that stop strategy doesn't make sense. We have some work to do, let me explain.
Take your $TBT. Technically that is extremely attractive and only breaks down below $43. There is no reason to be stopped out there. You should use a reverse calculation to determine how much you are willing to lose should $TBT fall below $43. Say you are willing to risk $1,000 on the trade. Stock is $2.35 above stop, hence your share count will be 425.
This is probably the most important thing we have ever addressed in the Brunch and funny, that most will pay no attention to it.
OK, with an hour to go, let's talk some charts. We'll hash out more psychology next time.
XOM - http://twitpic.com/1wlvy - We've been stalking $XOM for a very long time. I am out now waiting for another entry.
GILD - One of my favorite shorts $GILD, we've been stalking for months, broke hard the last couple weeks. I want to re-enter here. http://twitpic.com/1wm17 $GILD high on radar.
So, considering my only short is $GOOG, let's prepare ourselves in the event we do bounce. One of the things I have learned is to never give up on a stock regardless of how many attempts you make.
FCX - http://twitpic.com/1wm53 I added $FCX again to my Minyanville public portfolio this week. One of the best long setups out there. What I like most about $FCX, is that the day after it broke (Thursday) it had a constructive pullback that allowed for entry.
CAB - http://twitpic.com/1wm8w $CAB is quite attractive. The break in $SWHC on Friday should set the tone here.
@BuyOnTheDip No comment on empty buildings but the $SRS reversal on Friday was incredible. I will be looking for follow through here down
One area I am particularly interested in is China. There is much noise surrounding this group, but technicals becoming interesting.
FXI - http://twitpic.com/1wmhm $FXI is really starting to interest me here.
BIDU - http://twitpic.com/1wmjs We don't have to like it, but we need to respect the $BIDU break.
CTRP - http://twitpic.com/1wmmh $CTRP is one I am watching in this area. I would play the break.
S - @zortrades I have a trend line drawn on $S connecting 11/4 top with 2/26. A break there would have me long.
NTES - http://twitpic.com/1wmtq Another china name that interests me $NTES
SNDA - http://twitpic.com/1wmvu $SNDA another China name for the list next week.
MYSTERY CHART TIME: The point always with mystery chart is to determine your course of action without a bias. Ironically, some will still have a bias and not remain open to change. These will be those that fight the trend to the upside.
http://twitpic.com/1wn6e Let's break down this mystery chart a bit. Thoughts?
Here is the daily: http://twitpic.com/1wnkk Mystery chart daily. Note the 3 trend lines.
The mystery chart is $EEM. Let's see how it plays out this week.
Disclaimer: The majority of these ideas come from the @Tickerville Saturday morning brunch. In fact, many of these are direct quotes that I use as a check-point during the week. Trade at your own risk. Any reference to "I" is from @tickerville. The blog author did not have time to grammatically update that piece this week.
**Thanks to www.stocktwits.com for hosting. An excellent venue!
I was not present for this week's brunch, so I if I miss something, please don't "shoot the messenger." Also, I am pilfering through 10 pages of search results, so I hope I capture the jist.
Nice message here: dmooney9: My TA training from @tickerville and @traderalamo let me put a good stop on $V and $CELG and hold off buying $NUE. Thanks guys. WOW! Enuf said!
Last week's mystery chart was a success! "One of my only meaningful trades was a $goog short which was last weeks mystery chart." "Here is last week's $GOOG chart http://twitpic.com/1r2wp How many could have made your week on this one trade?"
@ppearlman normally late fri covering no big deal but this had Rocky like force behind it. $SRS reversal spoke volumes.
The best I can tell is that the first hour was spent on trading, emotions, and "bottom calls", which I guess can be pretty close to booty calls, no? Just about as effective?!?! Sorry, I digress.
http://twitpic.com/1wl21 - Oil is something that has become technically attractive. I started $DXO this week.
STOPS: Stops should always be based on technical breaks, where the trade no longer works. You must calculate this before hand. If that stop strategy doesn't make sense. We have some work to do, let me explain.
Take your $TBT. Technically that is extremely attractive and only breaks down below $43. There is no reason to be stopped out there. You should use a reverse calculation to determine how much you are willing to lose should $TBT fall below $43. Say you are willing to risk $1,000 on the trade. Stock is $2.35 above stop, hence your share count will be 425.
This is probably the most important thing we have ever addressed in the Brunch and funny, that most will pay no attention to it.
OK, with an hour to go, let's talk some charts. We'll hash out more psychology next time.
XOM - http://twitpic.com/1wlvy - We've been stalking $XOM for a very long time. I am out now waiting for another entry.
GILD - One of my favorite shorts $GILD, we've been stalking for months, broke hard the last couple weeks. I want to re-enter here. http://twitpic.com/1wm17 $GILD high on radar.
So, considering my only short is $GOOG, let's prepare ourselves in the event we do bounce. One of the things I have learned is to never give up on a stock regardless of how many attempts you make.
FCX - http://twitpic.com/1wm53 I added $FCX again to my Minyanville public portfolio this week. One of the best long setups out there. What I like most about $FCX, is that the day after it broke (Thursday) it had a constructive pullback that allowed for entry.
CAB - http://twitpic.com/1wm8w $CAB is quite attractive. The break in $SWHC on Friday should set the tone here.
@BuyOnTheDip No comment on empty buildings but the $SRS reversal on Friday was incredible. I will be looking for follow through here down
One area I am particularly interested in is China. There is much noise surrounding this group, but technicals becoming interesting.
FXI - http://twitpic.com/1wmhm $FXI is really starting to interest me here.
BIDU - http://twitpic.com/1wmjs We don't have to like it, but we need to respect the $BIDU break.
CTRP - http://twitpic.com/1wmmh $CTRP is one I am watching in this area. I would play the break.
S - @zortrades I have a trend line drawn on $S connecting 11/4 top with 2/26. A break there would have me long.
NTES - http://twitpic.com/1wmtq Another china name that interests me $NTES
SNDA - http://twitpic.com/1wmvu $SNDA another China name for the list next week.
MYSTERY CHART TIME: The point always with mystery chart is to determine your course of action without a bias. Ironically, some will still have a bias and not remain open to change. These will be those that fight the trend to the upside.
http://twitpic.com/1wn6e Let's break down this mystery chart a bit. Thoughts?
Here is the daily: http://twitpic.com/1wnkk Mystery chart daily. Note the 3 trend lines.
The mystery chart is $EEM. Let's see how it plays out this week.
Will miss Stocktwits Brunch on 3/7/09
I will not be at the brunch this morning.
I will go back and summarize later this evening.
Please check back later for an update.
Have a great day!
I will go back and summarize later this evening.
Please check back later for an update.
Have a great day!
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