Disclaimer: The majority of these ideas come from the @Tickerville Saturday morning brunch. In fact, many of these are direct quotes that I use as a check-point during the week. Trade at your own risk. Any reference to "I" is from @medicvz. The blog author did not grammatically update that piece.
StockTwits brunch sous chef @medicvz steppin in for da Q-Man this week.
If you’ve been following the good advice here on @stocktwits and feasting on @tickerville ‘s brunch you have caught much of this move.
Quite the end of the week with the S&P almost erasing the damage done from a miserable Monday. I tell you what... the eyes in here are amazing... as money rotates out... i agree that the ag names could be next up.
How did you trade this week? Did Monday catch you off guard? Did you participate near the end? I know some were caught on their heels after Monday's plunge-a-roo. Meaning... i think many anticipated the drop... but Tuesday was a bit of a surprise.
Many of the good traders I know have been mostly sidelined this week, Sidestepping the move monday and participating in cautiously small amounts the rest of the week.
Much of success in trading comes down to knowing yourself as a trader. Knowing which set ups and trades work for you. Following some of the great traders is a wonderful thing, but do you understand who YOU are as a trader? Do you know where your comfort zone is? Can you define for someone else what sort of trade is in your wheelhouse? If you can’t see the fat pitches that come your way... you certainly cant swing at them... and take them into the bleachers. This also prevents you from swinging at the high heat-every now and then you can connect on one... but my gosh I seem to wiff on those. Do me a favor and take in the fresh air this weekend and think about who you are as a trader... what is your style... what is your play.
It's a point stated over and over, but is worth repeating... We should all strive to be flexible and open minded. Every weekend I reset, take some time away and remind myself of what has proved successful and what has gotten me into trouble.
As traders we must control our emotions... the tape is emotional enough. For every day you kill it, remember there was a day where you got smoked.... lets keep our minds right and our screens green.
So lets get to it!
SPX ends this week a whopping 3.37 points lower than where it ended last week... that's points not percent. For all the fireworks we essentially are in the same spot. Only this time, it’s on lower volume with a couple of ugly days in between. Feel good yesterday? I ask you to have a look at Monday (duh) but Wednesday as well... reversal with a U G L Y close... volume there too.
I agree 840 is important but I'm thinking we're range bound... and currently at the top of the channel. http://chart.ly/xbswzp Ok, so here is our range. SPX back up into resistance on light volume... looking at those tops in late Jan and early Feb. There seems to be a band of churn here between 810 and 870... so we’re back at the top of that range. So break up? Break down? Seems to me that when you DON’T know... you DON’T GUESS... well at least not an educated guess.
Anxiety of missing a move can cause mistakes- to start swinging at bad pitches and then all of a sudden you’re back in the dugout. A fade down to 810 again would reinforce the idea that we’ve been basing over the past couple of months. http://chart.ly/ft6xh3 SPX - A fade down to 810 again would build a stronger base and be a trend break kiss.
Mighty Mighty XLF downtrend break and some crazy funk action this week. The action in the first half of the week was whippy. http://chart.ly/rs6rtb -Head and shoulders here on the XLF 30min. Like it or not we need the fins to move up for this market to break out... I would watch this 30min chart as your guide next week. That same h/s can been seen in many of the charts... watch that for direction.
Anyone play the OIH this week? Boy was that a nice breakout. I think if we do get a little market fade then I will be looking for entries in the OIH names, provided the break holds. http://chart.ly/k22sfy -Have a look at that multi month breakout.
FLY http://chart.ly/hbyzen -Nice breakout and run, but right into resistance... if I was long I'd book gains.
SMH - http://chart.ly/3wwnmb - Love me some Semi's but needs to push over that high on 11/4/08.
ADI - http://chart.ly/p4w69v -of the semi's have a look here... nice h/s breakout...
PBG - http://chart.ly/gbdg6q - Quite the gap! Not for me here, but you can define your risk easily... stop below the break.
MOS - http://chart.ly/s4273v - Looks like you might see some movement higher up to the underside of the trendline. MOS with the trendbreak lower from last week... volume pattern suggests selling all last week.
POT - http://chart.ly/6a97z3 - more ugly volume here, and the price is in no mans land.
Remember DBA is a commod. play... not an equity play. http://chart.ly/et9nhy - There is some resistance in here... but oh boy does that trend break look sweet.
Ok gang... mystery chart time... lets hear ya... get long? short? stay away? http://twitpic.com/3ytsf Before I tell you what it is... I want you to think about what you would do here. Let the tape talk... make a plan and I will have @tickerville review it next week.
Ok all before we call it a day I want to show you want I'm looking at next week.
IBB - http://chart.ly/f2fttp - I will be looking short the IBB next week as it runs into resistance.
Also looking at IGE for next week.
One final thought... You may not know what the market is going to do next.... but know what YOU are going to do next.
No comments:
Post a Comment