A Few Decent Setups, at least to me

Here are few setups that might work tomorrow, or sometime soon. Keep an eye on them.

A few new names 10.6.09

Here are a few new names to watch:

VMW u see what i see? http://fsc.bz/11y

PALM watching this line closely http://fsc.bz/122

BGS short setting up http://fsc.bz/123

CCRT another short set up http://fsc.bz/124

FMCN another 'line watcher' here http://fsc.bz/125

CYOU interesting one to watch here http://fsc.bz/126

SAFM line watching, with ma's turning down http://fsc.bz/127

MTG little bear flag http://fsc.bz/128

UAUA looks weak to me http://fsc.bz/129

Ideas Week of 10/05/09

Here are a few names I will be watching closely this week. My thoughts are we'll see a possible bounce, maybe back up to the near-term highs, or just shy, and then another drop to the near-term lows, and then, we will hold our breath for direction:

CBOU one to watch for a bounce http://fsc.bz/yY

AHCI thinster, but nice set up http://fsc.bz/yZ

ISIG another thinster, but the recent volume is nice http://fsc.bz/ya

VIV nice chart, nice bump here, hint hint (wireless and Brazil)...also, part of the $EWZ http://fsc.bz/yb

NUS guess i could draw trendlines here, but no need, just use the 10, 20, and 50 http://fsc.bz/yc

SFSF nice entry here using 10d as a stop, if it fits your r/r system http://fsc.bz/yd

DRYS watching for a bounce here http://fsc.bz/yg

JMBA still strong http://fsc.bz/yo

GLW - trend line watching: http://screencast.com/t/Fo8AeDwFJy

GERN 200d bounce http://screencast.com/t/4C25CaJ1kvq

NXG trend line bounce http://screencast.com/t/pANhkupX0

COIN - trend line bounce http://screencast.com/t/GVp2kViIq

CPST 200d bounce http://screencast.com/t/hQTCND3MR4gb

CBAK in case the 10d doesn't hold, watching this trend line http://screencast.com/t/oZobWC8uCI

ERTS - line watching http://screencast.com/t/DDfPiwvBJ

GOL - Brazil watcher http://screencast.com/t/77QGxf5c9UUG

Eventual Shorts = not right yet, but maybe soon.

JWN if retail is weak, then I will watch this one for a short http://screencast.com/t/DuYDA3usQ

EXPE big red volume, might bounce, then fall? http://screencast.com/t/kvErgDDPvDb

VVUS gap fill? http://screencast.com/t/wUrImaB9

Charting Fun thanks to Worden 8.17.09

Ok, so I "found" the little blue 'T' at the top of the freestockcharts.com site and thought I would give it a try. It is a really nifty add-on from the Worden brothers!

Remember, these charts were posted after a big "down day", 8.19.09. When you click on them, they will have updated to the most recent time.

PCLN - getting ready http://fsc.bz/1d

BKE setting up on the short side http://fsc.bz/1e

CMG interesting case study on EMA - closed just Below the 50d ema, well above the 50d sma http://fsc.bz/36

CRAY another one, just above its 50d - tomorrow could be a critical day http://fsc.bz/37

DDE this one looks nice http://fsc.bz/38

FCN I say short...what say you? http://fsc.bz/39

FUQI and then there are these broken charts - will wait and watch http://fsc.bz/3A

GMCR is it possible the almight green coffee is now a short? not so sure... http://fsc.bz/3B

GPN any thoughts on this one? kind of looks ok, but just below 20d http://fsc.bz/3C

IPSU watching this one closely - may be nice in a few days with some more sideways consolidation http://fsc.bz/3D

JNK I'm a spectator for now, but very interesting http://fsc.bz/3E

KIRK does this really mean people have stopped buying tacky home crap? doubt it... http://fsc.bz/3F

MDRX another strong stock, was in a healthy pullback, closed just below 50d, but now what? http://fsc.bz/3G

NFLX interesting intraday bounce off the 100d - could enter with 50d as a stop, if you dare - will watch closely http://fsc.bz/3J

AXE here is one from @downtowntrader - nice one! http://fsc.bz/3K

NOK as someone famous once said: "it gapped under everything today" LOL! http://fsc.bz/3M

RIMM ohhh, that 100d - see that April gap? do gaps always fill? nahhh, no way http://fsc.bz/3N

SPWRA hmm, seems i was just asking about gaps being filled (see $rimm) - looks like it here http://fsc.bz/3P

SWHC 5.25 and then 4.75? could happen http://fsc.bz/3R

TSS this one still looks decent http://fsc.bz/3S

VISN this lower $5 area has visibility going back to Nov 08 - close watch on this one http://fsc.bz/3T

ABD this one is still hanging in there http://fsc.bz/3

HELE held the 50d, will need to watch http://fsc.bz/3W

MEG a flag be on top of a flag. i want to say it looks good, not sure http://fsc.bz/3X

SBUX if this holds the 20d, then count me in http://fsc.bz/3Z

TBI this one is still holding it together http://fsc.bz/3d

VECO another one, if it holds the 20d, looking good, notice the green volume higher than red volume in this flag http://fsc.bz/3i

BKE nice set up here ht@downtowntrader http://fsc.bz/3n

SYMC break or bounce? break with volume = short http://fsc.bz/3o

WBSN gap fill? http://fsc.bz/3p

Lunch w/ Qman on Stocktwits TV - Edition #2 (7.15.09)

Episode#2 of Stocktwits "thingamajigger" - that needs to be patented...LOL!

Challenging market when neutral. Not sure if many are catching this move. If so, kudos and bottle up these wins!

Strategy - let the tape move in and out of positions. Let stops work. Have a plan for each and every trade. Know your stops. Portfolio naturally moves back to cash. Not an immediate re-deploy of capital. Stay out of emotional fray. Let the tape move back in. All about position management...trades not turning into investments.

Thesis is Longs will/could start to set up. Identify entry and stops.

Let trades be 100% mechanical, but not always the case. Always know where stops are and where profits points are.

Charts - same position as 8 days ago, but feels different. Coming back into critical overhead resistance area. Emotional capital trapped here.

Semis - shining star on huge gap. Could be a evening star.

Its ok to wait and be patient.

S&P going back into right shoulder. Let it play out.

BJS - hit first profit target and took 1/3...raised stop to entry. Will be out of trade before it reports earnings.

MA - still in, but painful. Stop 175. Watching emotional level. About $5 underwater.

PCLN - stopped out at 110.

QID - not so graceful exit here.

ARO - short stopped out at open.

XRT - still short. Within 4 pennies of stop.

Mentioned buying strength, leadership from reading Howard Lindzon's book, seen at Amazon here: http://bit.ly/2IDWa

Mentioned checking macro idea's/emotions at the door. Look at longer term charts. Example of auto-parts index at new all time highs. Break down trading in time frames.

AAP - looking at Weekly. Multi-year consolidation. If it breaks out of consolidation, with high volume, then will buying. Would set stop around 40.50 from early June. Need to adjust size accordingly. Give it a long enough leash.

GHL - financials are leading. Moving sideways. Previous attempts. Stopped on each occasion. "Longer the base...higher in space."

Remember, this is marathon, not a sprint.

Questions

GOLD. Likes the GOLD weekly.

QSII - watching for a long time. Weekly moving sideways. Breakout early 2009. Consolidating recently. Watch Daily chart for a prudent point of entry.

ATML - referred to MCHP - all the semis are ripping. Looking similar as this group is leadership. Watching LLTC. Trend line from February.

GOOG - broken out of big weekly train. Not a buyer or steeping in front of freight train here.

SMH - not chasing here.

CPRT - could have some catch-up ability. Stick with other car names mentioned.

FITB - looks good. If play, place stop below 50 day.

Overall Strategy - wait, watch, let stops work and start to move in with prudent points of entry.

Qman's Stocktwits TV Inaugural Address 7.13.09

Shaking off the nerves and the newness of the future of financial innovation.

S&P = bear sandwich
Current approach - switch to neutral - reference from weekend Tape Talk. See it here: http://www.tickerville.com/index.php/site/comments/all_eyes_on_875/
Still looking short, but not acting on it yet, i.e neutral.

Head and Shoulders...blah blah blah...too perfect?
TA101 will put your head on a platter in this current environment.
Still need to prove this pattern

Mentioned the QID and where to place Stop to avoid the obvious areas.

Stopped out of AMZN short today due to TA-101 stop.

Seeing some lower highs in big cap tech names. Wedging into overhead resistance.

Currently short ARO, stop at 35.80. Look at weekly, huge "V".

Stopped on XLF today. Meredith Whitney and GS upgrade set the tone for today.

Seeing some commodities starting to bounce, follow-thru.. Long some DBA here.

Looking at BJS - Weekly - double bottom. Could be a significant higher low.

Watching ACI - daily not showing much. Weekly chart - could be another higher low.

FCX - if commods get a bounce, it could run. But, Qman looking at it as a possible short. Needs to get over right shoulder to confirm as a long.

MA - currently short - topping pattern - 175 major overhead resistance. Just hanging around right now. Be sure to check earnings.

PCLN - currently short - significant lower high in Weekly - look at Daily, and you will see the infamous H&S.

Potential short of XRT. Stop above 28.40.

Ran out of time for any questions. Tune in Wednesday, for Episode #2.

Tickerville Brunch Summary 5.16.09

Disclaimer: The majority of these ideas come from the @Tickerville Saturday morning brunch. In fact, many of these are direct quotes that I use as a check-point during the week. Trade at your own risk. Any reference to "I" is from @tickerville. The blog author did not grammatically update that piece.

**Thanks to StockTwits for hosting. An excellent venue!

All I can say as the author of this update, is WOW! The last two weeks of Brunch with @Tickerville and @Stocktwits has been phenomenal. But, who cares what I think, you are here for the summary and it starts now...

Morning all. Will do live version along with @StockTwits stream. {Author's Note: this was the coolest integration, and after last week's rowdy brunch, a welcomed changed from the norm.}

Market consolidation week. About time. Tough to play though with so much back and forth. S&P down 5%. First chart is S&P 500. LOTS going on here. Worth our dissecting. S&P 500 daily. TA 101 says breakdown coming. http://twitpic.com/5a9l1 S&P 500 weekly still a powerful base but would LOVE to see dark space filled in. http://twitpic.com/5a9sd

QQQQ daily, same precarious state. 2nd wedge on tape. http://twitpic.com/5aa6l But..... QQQQ weekly still looking strong. http://twitpic.com/5aa92

So, in summary with S&P and QQQQ we're at a very tricky point. Dailies suggest roll over, weeklies suggest consolidation. So what to do? High levels of cash. Unbiased opinion. IF we roll, there are charts to play. We'll discuss. If we bounce, we must adapt. I think the summary is that we're in a key state here.

So, being in a precarious state. We must study the heart! What is the heart of the market?? That's right...the FINS. The heart and soul of the tape. Heart and soul of market XLF on trend line and flirting with break of Base 3. This is our guide. http://twitpic.com/5abep

Question about strongest sector right now...and a new words was born...FERTS!

SMH, this one clearly looks like breakdown coming. Yet weekly still good. I started here long. http://twitpic.com/5abuu

MOO bucking the trend. If we do not fall to abyss. We must play MOO http://twitpic.com/5ac4h

PER REQUEST:

DBA Excellent risk reward still. http://twitpic.com/5acei

ALXN one I have been watching on weekly to short. http://twitpic.com/5ad6f

BLL Daily I am already short. I would add on clear break. http://twitpic.com/5adcr

CEPH daily. A long that found its way on my radar this morning. http://twitpic.com/5admd

FNF a decent looking short on daily. http://twitpic.com/5ae2x

MA not a short for me but looks like it wants to roll. http://twitpic.com/5aelz

CLR http://twitpic.com/5aewu I would look for a smooch of trend.

NTAP A decent looking short, not enough reward for me just yet. http://twitpic.com/5afex

So, in conclusion. Daily charts say Warning lower prices coming. But TA 101 is so in vogue I have to think outside box. If we do not break down, as dailies suggest, we must have our long candidates (FERTS, MOO, DBA etc) ready to rock.

Tickerville Brunch Summary 5.9.09

Disclaimer: The majority of these ideas come from the @Tickerville Saturday morning brunch. In fact, many of these are direct quotes that I use as a check-point during the week. Trade at your own risk. Any reference to "I" is from @tickerville. The blog author did not grammatically update that piece.

**Thanks to StockTwits for hosting. An excellent venue!

Well, another week of market gains. We don't have to believe it, but we sure shouldn't fight it. Are we extended? Sure we are. Is there froth? You bet. Does it matter? NOPE! Now, our job is to neither be bulls or bears, our job is to be opportunists.

So let's talk first about the potential cracks I see. Now, it's important to remember. These cracks should eventually turn into opportunities, but we have to be patient. What is interesting about this week, is for the first time in several weeks, I had an equal # of shorts as longs. All were working well. What I am getting at, and you probably have already figured it out. Play the pattern, NOT THE MKT.

What I really want to get across in today's brunch is that it isn't about the broad move. It's about the setups. Yes, I believe we're overdue for a correction, and yes I am taking setups on short side. However I am also eying some longs.

Let's take a step back for a second and rehash just why we do this Brunch. First of all, lots of emotion out there. Let's all just put that down and remember we're all in the same battle. Arguing does not help anyone make money. The reason I do StockTwits brunch is to help people navigate the tape. 99% of info out there crushes people in either tape, but understanding HOW to play the tape is what keeps people in the game.

Point is...We can argue all we want, but rather than trying to determine where the world is going. Why don't we just focus on trades? Whether it's manipulated, short covering, summer solstice or what I ate for breakfast. It is what it is. Let's not forget what JMK said. Market can remain irrational, longer than you can remain solvent.

We have been following SMH for some time. It will be very important to watch closely how this sets up. http://twitpic.com/4uf1u The semis led the tech run, and were solid movers. They are now pulling back. I want to see this turn into healthy prudent entries. SMH Daily pullback is deep, but so far constructive. I want to see it setup. Stocks within will tell us. http://twitpic.com/4uf6v

So if SMH is getting hit, it makes sense that NAZ is looking precarious and tired. http://twitpic.com/4ufh4

So, the fact that technology has been the technically superior, the fact that it is pulling back is healthy, so far.It tells us to be aware of this filtering through other sectors as the leader takes a step back.

Another sector that is showing cracks...finally...is retail. http://twitpic.com/4ufoh This has been on a tear, but not because it's been under massive accumulation rather it has been short infested. Shorts gave up. In full disclosure, I am short XRT

So, if we have technology showing signs of being tired, and we have retail finally cracking, how about the heart on this market body? The heart is still ticking strong and therefor we MUST respect that. http://twitpic.com/4ufyu Finally, finally the XLF is in an area where it makes sense to see some significant sideways action, digesting that move. I have seen people getting CRUSHED shorting this whole move while the fins told us the ticker was still beating strong. They have now come back to Nov/Dec 08 level which was filled with massive emotion. Short them here? Not for me, there are easier trades. They may come down again soon, but so far it's been a losing bet.

So, with tech and retail showing signs of being tired, and fins coming into a clear resistance point. Are we done or is this rotation? So where is money rotating too? This is a pattern I want to own. http://twitpic.com/4ugiq

OK, so we have some cracks in the QQQQ and XRT. But we also have solid breaks OIH. We have a heart coming into resistance. And yes, we're extended. So play it close to the chest. Identify your opportunities, set your stops and get after it. So rather than discuss what is not, let's just talk about what is and study some charts. They're pictures and letters people.

If a short like FDO setups up. Take it. http://twitpic.com/4ugta Disclosure: Short FDO

Or, if ALL sets up for a long. Take it. http://twitpic.com/4ugw9

Here are some from my trading desk for the coming week.

AMT broke trend and is hanging below. I like the risk reward here quite a bit. http://twitpic.com/4uhgq

Here's another I am watching and would like to enter. AOC big break and hanging . http://twitpic.com/4uhvt

CHK breaks long base after an emotional shake. Note that we played 'emotion' with FCX. Similar break. http://twitpic.com/4ui14

GOOG is extended. No reason to do chart here. No real support until $375.

Per request FFG. It is not for me, due to stop being quite a way's away. http://twitpic.com/4uicg

Per request. PX http://twitpic.com/4uifk

Per request. ERTS Something is wrong here. Should have followed through by now. http://twitpic.com/4uijh

Per request. DV hanging by a thread. Have to look at weekly here. http://twitpic.com/4uio8

Per request. SLB one of the strongest out there. http://twitpic.com/4uisi

Per request. Entire restaurant sector. http://twitpic.com/4uiw5

Per request. FDX weekly a GREAT chart for review to keep things in perspective. http://twitpic.com/4uj7u

Per request. KBR daily extended but weekly beaut. Needs pull back and prudent entry. http://twitpic.com/4ul43

Per request. SNDA one of the strongest around. http://twitpic.com/4ul8r

I like the USO on a clear break of lateral trend. http://twitpic.com/4ulbq

I am long GHL waiting to add. Stop around $74 now.

Here's another one, KSU, I am looking at long. By now you probably can see I have longs and shorts on tape for this week. http://twitpic.com/4ujoc

If we continue to squeeze this week. We must watch Commercial Real Estate. I think I have attempted this one 3 or 4 times. EQR It looks ready if we squeeze higher. http://twitpic.com/4uk0w

Another one on my radar. PLD http://twitpic.com/4uk63

TMO another long I am looking at here. http://twitpic.com/4ukph

Tickerville Brunch Summary 5.2.09

Disclaimer: The majority of these ideas come from the @Tickerville Saturday morning brunch. In fact, many of these are direct quotes that I use as a check-point during the week. Trade at your own risk. Any reference to "I" is from @tickerville. The blog author did not grammatically update that piece.

**Thanks to StockTwits for hosting. An excellent venue!

OK, market continues to melt higher with no one on board and most betting against it. Setups seem to come and go. I think what we have to stop asking ourselves 'what the market will do' and stay focused on the patterns that develop for trades. Let's break down the indices a bit, shall we?

You can see that the SPY has started its consolidation, working off the V shape action. http://twitpic.com/4eimd The good thing about the SPY chart is it looks like it could be setting up for a trade in either direction.

Leadership QQQQ grabs 8th straight week of gains. I want in, but not here. http://twitpic.com/4eitf

But this my friends will be the ultimate tell. XLF http://twitpic.com/4ej2f Note how the XLF is consolidating for third straight week. The break here is what will be our guide for the rest of the tape.

Many weeks ago, we talked about the 'anxiety' within BTU. It was a pattern that I wanted to be in, regardless of the break. Remember? I traded BTU on Friday and executed well. The trade paid off, but I want to break down what I saw.
This was BTU from Thursday and what I saw. Tons going on here. Study it. http://twitpic.com/4ejn1 Friday, got in and partialed into strength. Not a chest thump, but shows how setups are working if you wait. http://twitpic.com/4ejsg

There is no question the commodity run was exceptional on Friday. The SLX broke out and Coals were on fire. If you were leaning against the tape or in disbelief you missed the move. IT is why we must focus on setups, and block out the darn noise.

The deep V (IYT)here concerns me quite a bit. Worthy of our respect. http://twitpic.com/4ek9f The "V" can continue, but the problem is there is no logical point of support, so we must wait until one develops.

So to give you a clue where I am. I sit with heavy heavy cash. Sticking and moving within trades that set up, waiting for pullback. The problem of course is that I don't know of a soul who isn't always waiting for a pullback to enter or short so it could take more time and is why we must keep finding opportunities, defining our risk and taking the trades. Quite simple really ;-)

If you look at the S&P, the reason this is so tricky is that it is really the first sustained bear run we've seen since this started. That is fine, as we should expect these in the context of a bear market. However a true trend has higher lows. Which we have to remain patient for. When it comes, and provides us with entry, you'll hear me talk about the trend as our friend and hopefully you'll hear me talk about how we must sit in the trend and ride it out. But this move is move 1 in what maybe a larger move.

That is why it is so tricky to time and why we SHOULDN'T try. We have to remain patient and wait.

So, if you have anxiety over what to do here, shelf it! No need. The tape is dancing high wire. It will consolidate sideways or down. But don't let it keep you from good trades. If they are out there, you identify them, take them and set your stop.

Alright let's hit some charts in the cue and then we'll digest some ideas long / short for the week ahead.

Per request, AINV, in full disclosure a good chart but not for me. http://twitpic.com/4elmp

One of my dearest friends and exceptional trader @PrakashT discussed with me the disconnect between stocks and UNG http://twitpic.com/4em09 If you noticed, the Nat Gas stocks and OIH started selling off first on Thursday, while UNG was trying to turn up. That was the sign. Sometimes you don't need to know the reason, you just need to see something that gives you the edge. If you can quant your risk then go. So with UNG, I took it with size all over. Minyanville portfolio, Fund, Sep Accounts. Then took half off on Friday.

Per request. DRYS. I was in this and took very quick gain. Did not wait and missed real move. Lesson learned. http://twitpic.com/4emhe What is interesting about DRYS is it gave everyone ample time to get in but you had to remain patient for the break. BREAKS ARE WORKING.

POT - Normally, you would look at this daily and get pretty encouraged. Maybe go long. http://twitpic.com/4enha The long off the daily may work. But don't forget this weekly. It still looks VERY Dangerous. http://twitpic.com/4enio

How about some Qman ideas? First let's start with a few longer term shorts I re-entered this week. Off their weekly charts.

Old time favorite MCD. The slow roll over. I am short here. http://twitpic.com/4eoc5

I think ORCL short still offers good risk reward with a defined stop above the Mother Trend line http://twitpic.com/4eodr

EQR I tried and took stop here on Friday. I will try again if break sets in. http://twitpic.com/4eomj

Mystery chart time. Are you ready? Tell me your thoughts here. http://twitpic.com/4eovs Failed break there was right shoulder on small H&S too. Now, you are more inclined to see the pattern and develop a strategy. Long or short THAT is good trading. Any guesses on what it is?

DrumRoll...... Pattern is..... IYR Daily. Thought it worthy of our attention since SRS about the most popular ETF going now. LOL

StockTwits brunch sous chef @medicvz steppin in for da Q-Man

Disclaimer: The majority of these ideas come from the @Tickerville Saturday morning brunch. In fact, many of these are direct quotes that I use as a check-point during the week. Trade at your own risk. Any reference to "I" is from @medicvz. The blog author did not grammatically update that piece.

StockTwits brunch sous chef @medicvz steppin in for da Q-Man this week.

If you’ve been following the good advice here on @stocktwits and feasting on @tickerville ‘s brunch you have caught much of this move.

Quite the end of the week with the S&P almost erasing the damage done from a miserable Monday. I tell you what... the eyes in here are amazing... as money rotates out... i agree that the ag names could be next up.

How did you trade this week? Did Monday catch you off guard? Did you participate near the end? I know some were caught on their heels after Monday's plunge-a-roo. Meaning... i think many anticipated the drop... but Tuesday was a bit of a surprise.

Many of the good traders I know have been mostly sidelined this week, Sidestepping the move monday and participating in cautiously small amounts the rest of the week.

Much of success in trading comes down to knowing yourself as a trader. Knowing which set ups and trades work for you. Following some of the great traders is a wonderful thing, but do you understand who YOU are as a trader? Do you know where your comfort zone is? Can you define for someone else what sort of trade is in your wheelhouse? If you can’t see the fat pitches that come your way... you certainly cant swing at them... and take them into the bleachers. This also prevents you from swinging at the high heat-every now and then you can connect on one... but my gosh I seem to wiff on those. Do me a favor and take in the fresh air this weekend and think about who you are as a trader... what is your style... what is your play.

It's a point stated over and over, but is worth repeating... We should all strive to be flexible and open minded. Every weekend I reset, take some time away and remind myself of what has proved successful and what has gotten me into trouble.

As traders we must control our emotions... the tape is emotional enough. For every day you kill it, remember there was a day where you got smoked.... lets keep our minds right and our screens green.

So lets get to it!

SPX ends this week a whopping 3.37 points lower than where it ended last week... that's points not percent. For all the fireworks we essentially are in the same spot. Only this time, it’s on lower volume with a couple of ugly days in between. Feel good yesterday? I ask you to have a look at Monday (duh) but Wednesday as well... reversal with a U G L Y close... volume there too.

I agree 840 is important but I'm thinking we're range bound... and currently at the top of the channel. http://chart.ly/xbswzp Ok, so here is our range. SPX back up into resistance on light volume... looking at those tops in late Jan and early Feb. There seems to be a band of churn here between 810 and 870... so we’re back at the top of that range. So break up? Break down? Seems to me that when you DON’T know... you DON’T GUESS... well at least not an educated guess.

Anxiety of missing a move can cause mistakes- to start swinging at bad pitches and then all of a sudden you’re back in the dugout. A fade down to 810 again would reinforce the idea that we’ve been basing over the past couple of months. http://chart.ly/ft6xh3 SPX - A fade down to 810 again would build a stronger base and be a trend break kiss.

Mighty Mighty XLF downtrend break and some crazy funk action this week. The action in the first half of the week was whippy. http://chart.ly/rs6rtb -Head and shoulders here on the XLF 30min. Like it or not we need the fins to move up for this market to break out... I would watch this 30min chart as your guide next week. That same h/s can been seen in many of the charts... watch that for direction.

Anyone play the OIH this week? Boy was that a nice breakout. I think if we do get a little market fade then I will be looking for entries in the OIH names, provided the break holds. http://chart.ly/k22sfy -Have a look at that multi month breakout.

FLY http://chart.ly/hbyzen -Nice breakout and run, but right into resistance... if I was long I'd book gains.

SMH - http://chart.ly/3wwnmb - Love me some Semi's but needs to push over that high on 11/4/08.

ADI - http://chart.ly/p4w69v -of the semi's have a look here... nice h/s breakout...

PBG - http://chart.ly/gbdg6q - Quite the gap! Not for me here, but you can define your risk easily... stop below the break.

MOS - http://chart.ly/s4273v - Looks like you might see some movement higher up to the underside of the trendline. MOS with the trendbreak lower from last week... volume pattern suggests selling all last week.

POT - http://chart.ly/6a97z3 - more ugly volume here, and the price is in no mans land.

Remember DBA is a commod. play... not an equity play. http://chart.ly/et9nhy - There is some resistance in here... but oh boy does that trend break look sweet.

Ok gang... mystery chart time... lets hear ya... get long? short? stay away? http://twitpic.com/3ytsf Before I tell you what it is... I want you to think about what you would do here. Let the tape talk... make a plan and I will have @tickerville review it next week.

Ok all before we call it a day I want to show you want I'm looking at next week.

IBB - http://chart.ly/f2fttp - I will be looking short the IBB next week as it runs into resistance.

Also looking at IGE for next week.

One final thought... You may not know what the market is going to do next.... but know what YOU are going to do next.

Blog Ideas/Notes 4.20

AlphaTrends Longs
CBEY
USU
CCJ
CTSH
FEED
MPEL - above 4.6
QSII
RVBD
XRAY
FMD - tiny bank

Shorts
NUVA
XOM 68.30 stop
CVX
PGN 35.25 stop
NST
ALXN

PMTI - tradersprotege
SFLY - tradersprotege

ChartSwingTrader
Longs
MGM
DNR
SIGA - needs to consolidate
FEED - pull back around 3
VTNC
F - needs to hold 9 DMA
CTRP - only chase with volume
APWR - maybe late?
DTSI - consolidating?
BBBY - above 32?
OCN - above 12

Shorts
KIRK
WFC - lows July, Nov at 20.25
PNC - same chart as WFC
WGOV - filled gap
ADM - go to 15?
LPHI
COCO - closer to 19 better to short
CPLA - lower highs

short $HAL below 18.27, protective stop above 19 target 14.74 - 14.16 min R/R 4.8

My Tickerville Summary - Ideas Week of 4/20/09

Disclaimer: The majority of these ideas come from the @Tickerville Saturday morning brunch. In fact, many of these are direct quotes that I use as a check-point during the week. Trade at your own risk. Any reference to "I" is from @tickerville. The blog author did not grammatically update that piece.

**Thanks to StockTwits for hosting. An excellent venue!

Good morning traders! How is everyone this morning? It's 10am; do you know where your charts are??

Indexes extended their gains this week but does that mean I am fighting the tape here? No sir, but I have effectively gone to cash, booked solid gains and am sidelined.

Let me mark up the S&P and show you why. Many lines on this pup worth noting. Lots going on here. Take a moment to really study it. You can see we're in a clear resistance point. http://twitpic.com/3irvq/full

Don't be confused by Friday's volume ala Options induced. Had it not been expiration, volume would have been quite low.

Now, that is the SPY, but let's takes a look at a few other danger signs that say we should be on guard.

Safe to say we have nailed the semis and been there before most. Now they're coming into key resistance area. http://twitpic.com/3is3n/full

There are 2 more warning signs I am seeing. One in the heart and soul of the tape that has kept us long until recently.

The leaders, XLF have been outstanding. Now they're coming into significant overhead resistance. http://twitpic.com/3is8w/full

And, finally the Dow is bumping up against its mother trend. Will it break the first time or need a breather? http://twitpic.com/3ise2

For weeks you have heard me ride the trend. I am not a fighter of the tape, but now I am retreating to the sidelines for a bit. I will wait and watch and see how it shakes out. I will be looking for constructive pullbacks for entry. The tape remains bullish, but needs to digest. Best case would be a pull back that goes deeper than we expect. This is why I am so inclined to keep an eye on the 2002 lows line noted in the S&P chart. If a pullback gets nasty this point makes sense.

Now, we MUST remember that the trend is our friend and right now the intermediate term trend is up. Trends can last longer than we expect. So we must be eying prudent risk reward regardless of what the big picture says. If we take trades and get stopped out, so be it.

We'll go over ideas for the coming week in a bit. First a few more big picture thoughts. I see many people licking their lips wanting to short again. Day trading that is fine, but we must respect what is happening on the chart.

QQQQ demands our respect. We must change our longer term idea from shorting to buying. http://twitpic.com/3isx1

The world is talking inflation, global slow down, depression and blah, while tech is breaking out of the strongest pattern known. A group I want to chat a bit about are the commods. After weeks of battle they are finally breaking. We have to observe and respect.

SLX two time frames, finally starting to show some life. http://twitpic.com/3itas and http://twitpic.com/3itb0 OIH is another that has quietly started to make itself known. Like SLX, I want to see how this break is handled http://twitpic.com/3itws/full

So what is interesting to note about SLX and OIH is that they are finally joining the party. They have actually lagged technically. I want to play them but I want to see how they react as the other major averages are hitting resistance. I am in none of them currently.

Hmmm, lot's of questions about taking shorts here. Let's hash that out a bit. One of the biggest challenges I see with traders is that they feel they must always be involved in a trade. If you can effectively switch sides in an instant with absolutely no anxiety or frustration whatsoever than with defined risk its game on.

But most cannot do that. Rather than look to short when we come into resistance, why not just step aside and lighten up a bit? If you start shorting and you are early, ala wrong, not only will you get hit financially, but emotionally too. Most traders I have seen have not capitalized on this run because they have been more interested in finding the turn down than playing up. Has this been you? How come?

At this point, please understand my thesis. I have had a great run, new all time highs again. Indices at resistance, time to wait it out. If we pull back as the charts suggest we may. We evaluate the opportunities for long side entry. If this comes we take them. If we pull back and start to break down. Shorts will setup like crazy and we'll switch to that side minting money on a downside slide.

OK, let's get back to the charts. If anyone has any thoughts on the previous, please let me know. Always a good topic to discuss.

CBG The real estate trades have been fantastic. http://twitpic.com/3iuq6

SPG Per request @Upsidetrader I played this break and enjoyed the run. Sold it about $5 too early. Geeze http://twitpic.com/3iut3

PG Not one for me. http://twitpic.com/3iv0w

AAPL not for me here. http://twitpic.com/3iv54

You will see that most of the leadership stocks are extended and not for me. Another reason I have moved to cash.

ZLC http://twitpic.com/3iva9 I played and prefer TIF but am now out after nice run. Looking for a remount.

The hangman on FLY on Friday would keep me away.

Last week we spoke of BA. Per request, an update. http://twitpic.com/3ivi0

FLS http://twitpic.com/3ivmt One I like quite a bit, if it gives me entry.

Best way to see my ongoing take with GLD is Tape Talk. http://bit.ly/9SxoN Not to bunt but I cover it at length.

OK, I think I hit all the cue, how about some ideas I'm watching for the week ahead. I doubt I'll do much this week as I observe the action from sidelines, but let's run through some potential gems.

GRMN has been consolidating nicely within a key area saying break coming. Direction doesn't matter. http://twitpic.com/3iwcq

A I like the emotional break here. I played it and am now looking for re-entry. http://twitpic.com/3iwrg

If OIH is breaking, the components must be watched. Here is DO http://twitpic.com/3ix8k

I want to be in SLB with a stop at the mother trend line. http://twitpic.com/3ixd0

Last within the OIH space is RIG. Now if these breaks start failing, they will be excellent shorts. http://twitpic.com/3ixh7/full

Last week our mystery chart was a bust. It was BTU. I played the initial break and was stopped the same day. A lesson in discipline. We broke the anxiety down quite a bit in BTU and you can see the failed breakout here. http://twitpic.com/3ixs4

Last week we ran out of time before I got into new leadership. Let's rehash some weeklies we must continue to respect.

GHL is one of the best weekly charts out there. I am long and looking to add. I have a long leash. http://twitpic.com/3iy3p

I am not yet in this stock, but will be. QSII another one of the top weekly patterns out there. http://twitpic.com/3iyak

Last but not least. This was a mystery chart from some time ago. It is breaking and I am long. NVEC http://twitpic.com/3iyfn

Last on the idea front, if BA continues to act well, look for PCP to break towards trend. http://twitpic.com/3iymm

Alright all, 15 minutes left. Any other requests to hit before we start closing up shop? Geesh every week gets better and better love it

Interesting SWC http://twitpic.com/3iz2l

PCLN http://twitpic.com/3iz6y

It would be wrong of me not to include my favorite short opportunity. ADM http://twitpic.com/3izc5

My Tickerville Summary - Ideas Week of 4/13/09

Disclaimer: The majority of these ideas come from the @Tickerville Saturday morning brunch. In fact, many of these are direct quotes that I use as a check-point during the week. Trade at your own risk. Any reference to "I" is from @tickerville. The blog author did not grammatically update that piece.

**Thanks to StockTwits for hosting. An excellent venue!

OK, I want to start out this weekend with a statement that I wish I could scream from the mountain tops. STOP FIGHTING THE blanking TAPE!!!! Let's break it down a bit. There are 2 tanks for a trader. An emotional and financial. You must keep your financial tank in tact to stay in the game. That is RULES based, but your EMOTIONAL tank allows you to execute. If you are busy fighting the tape, you are depleting the emotional tank and cannot execute with confidence.

Wow, I am fired up this morning. Do you LOVE WHAT YOU DO?? I can't think of anything better than stocks. Geesh.

If you find yourself zombie like, because you don't 'believe' the move, then chose to do 1 of the following. A.) Do nothing, step away and let the market do what it is going to do. Detach yourself from the ticks. I do it often. B.) Play small, VERY SMALL to at least rebuild the confidence level and to see what is working.

The #1 problem with traders is how you began your statement. "Convinced" Or 'Think" or 'Assume'. I am so sick and tired of jamokes guessing and imposing their belief on the tape. Follow the TAPE, it NEVER Lies!!

Let's get started!


I got tons of feedback on this (XLF) as everyone waited and watched for the break to come. Well, it broke. http://twitpic.com/35j2n I think we all should keep a graphic of this chart by our computers at all times. While the world was debating, note how XLF digested. Whether you are playing the fins directly or not, it is the heart and soul of the tape. We have to keep this chart up to be our guide. Will it retrace? Sure it will, but now we pull out past Brunch archives to determine whether or not it is healthy.

My best mover this week was BAC long. Not just a position in my fund, but publicly held in Minyanville portfolio as well. While others fight it,I peeled off a portion, raised stop to guarantee winning trade and now looking for remount http://twitpic.com/35jaa

OK, We'll come back to the indices in a bit, but I want to touch on something that is getting NO press but very important. Clearly, we are in earnings season so get in the habit of checking when your names report. I am NOT an EPS gambler. OK, back to previous point. Its EPS season and as I pound in Tickerville.com members heads. It is NOT the report, it is the REACTION. I could care less about a report, all I care about is what a stock does after a report. This is what is so important to understand.

AA -short from saying they were going out of business. It was a TERRIBLE quarter. How has stock reacted? http://twitpic.com/35jms

MOS -just as awful. Didn't they even guide lower? Reaction excellent and a descent set up going fwd. http://twitpic.com/35jnp

BBBY -retail play busting out. Terrible quarter? you bet. http://twitpic.com/35jpf

Now, the point of these charts are not to say I will go long these stocks, nor will I start betting on earnings. The point is to understand where we are in the game. Whether or not these reports have been priced in. These stocks say they have been.

OK, several weeks ago, we broke down EEM mystery chart as noted here: http://twitpic.com/1wn6e/full The reason I bring this up, is not because I want to pound chest. I LOATH that, it is because I want to discuss the process. Whether or not it worked was irrelevant, it was a matter of identifying the setup, identifying the stop, and taking the trade. I posted 2 charts that week that were interesting to me. Both weekly, (as noted below) and daily. http://twitpic.com/1wnkk/full Of course I heard all the garbage about international mkts, which went in one ear and out the other, but the pattern was sound. EEM is now one of the strongest ETF's out there and we can move our stop where noted on chart. http://twitpic.com/35kbj

You see, trading is not about picking a hot stock or sector. Stock picks are a commodity. It is about execution. The more I grow as a trader / money manager, the more I learn that it is about refining the trading plan, rather than finding ideas.

To recap begin: We all must look within and see if we're fighting or embracing moves. We must realize where the financials are in the game ala breaking out and watch their retracement to measure health. We must understand how stocks are reacting to poor earnings. ala MOS, AA, BBBY and we must remember ala EEM that it is not about the stock / ETF, it's about the darn plan.

CHARTS - Alright, trading lessons over, let's get to the here and now.

We've talked at length about 840 on S&P and its importance. We're now back above this level. http://twitpic.com/35klk The mother trend has been broken and we now must study health of consolidation. It is important for 840 to hold on retracement. Note the volume on Friday's break.

QQQQ is the strongest index around. Note the break off double bottom. http://twitpic.com/35kqk If you aren't accustomed to looking at weeklies, you should start. Much easier to see double bottom here http://twitpic.com/35kui

IYR - This has been a classic trend break. Break, Kiss, Follow Through. http://twitpic.com/35ky6

IYT is still offering good risk reward, and needs to hold the Nov low base. http://twitpic.com/35l2q I watch those ETF's all day every day for clues. So far they are acting very well. The IYT needs to be observed closely.

Alright, so after have a few great weeks, all accounts hitting new all time highs, what is plan for this coming week? If the long weekend knocks some sense into traders and they come in giddy, I will sell inventory into morning gap. If we open flat to down and start the consolidation process, I will watch current holdings and new ideas closely. I have already peeled off to protect gains, and raised stops, so now it is all about position management.

Let's look at some places I'll be eying this coming week. Please note, I will chase NONE of these. I want prudent entry with stops in place.

MS is one I am watching closely and started Friday. http://twitpic.com/35lg9

I attempted ADI on Friday but closed it when it did not close at highs. It is one I want to remount. http://twitpic.com/35lk9

With a stop at Friday's low, I am looking to remount APA. I will not chase. http://twitpic.com/35lpl

BA was knocking on death's door, but now is breaking out. I want in. http://twitpic.com/35lui

Have you noticed the stealth rally in Solar? STP has good risk reward with stop here. http://twitpic.com/35lz6

Per Request:

GE: http://twitpic.com/35mas

SLX: http://twitpic.com/35mer It's a battle ground. I have found easier trades.

See the IYR in regards to SRS. If IYR break fails, I'll look back at SRS until then not for me.

Rather than AEM how about GLD. http://twitpic.com/35mk2

Love the semis as noted in previous brunches. I am long SMH http://twitpic.com/35mn6

KR: This one I have been watching for short entry off weekly for some time. http://twitpic.com/35mpp

ADM - I think it important to highlight a short I am watching. http://twitpic.com/35noj

OK, I think I got all stocks in the cue. Let's knock out a mystery chart. Love this one. Thoughts on Mystery Chart for this week? http://twitpic.com/35n1f

BTU it is. One of the most anxiety filled stocks around right now. As you can clearly see, BTU is in a channel the is well defined. I suspect a break is coming soon, after much heartache. This break could be up, or down, but either way, I will play it and suspect it has a long way to go.

Ideas Week of 3/30/09

Disclaimer: The majority of these ideas come from the @Tickerville Saturday morning brunch. In fact, many of these are direct quotes that I use as a check-point during the week. Trade at your own risk. Any reference to "I" is from @tickerville. The blog author did not grammatically update that piece.

**Thanks to StockTwits for hosting. An excellent venue!

OK, I gotta admit, this week was a tough one. We ultimately meandered with individual trades to be had throughout. All in all, we round out a darn good month.

Questions / Thoughts / Ideas

Wow, lots of meat and potatoes this week. Hope I keep everyone's attention. You have entered my real world and head.

Just follow the chart and don't think about 'stuff'. The chart won't lie.

There are clearly some things that concern me. I'll touch on them all. We've run a long way, could use some pain here.

How do you 'fish'? - e.g. how to find good setups with good risk/reward ratios? It is dangerous for new traders learning to fish. I have taught traders for many years now. It seems that as soon as I begin with someone they want to find new ideas. I ask them always why are they so interested in finding stocks? Why not just play the ones others have already found.

Ultimately, what they don't understand is, it is not the stock that makes you money. It is the trading that makes you money. The first thing I instruct new traders to do is to stop looking for new stocks and start looking AT the stocks we're playing.

The BEST traders I know, focus on 100 or so core stocks and that's it. Some of the premier traders trade only e-minis. Why? Because they know that making money is not about finding a good vehicle, it is about learning to drive ANY vehicle. That is why Tiger Woods could clean my clock using only 1 club, yet I still believe the Nike blades will help my game. LOL Nope

OK, last week we talked quite a bit about the 'health' of the pullback. So many were looking to short, but we concluded that was wrong. The pullback had the proper character of being healthy and was needed after the fast and furious run. Now let's look at S&P and discuss.

Here is daily S&P 500. You can see we still have run quite a ways with big resistance overhead. CHART I have labeled an area on the chart that says 'Fair Game' to show just how much open space we have that we could pull back. But my point in this chart, is to understand we could go back quite a ways, and still put in significant higher low. So understand that, and should the bears start coming out and chest pounding, be on the look out for reversal and snap city.

Those looking to swing trade, must know that we could easily pull back to anywhere in this area and still put in a higher low. This is a reason you won't hear me talking about longer term shorts for a LONG time, unless we start challenging March lows. I will take shorts if they present day trading opportunities, but as swings, very unlikely.

Ideally, what I would LOVE to see happen, is for us to digest this recent move in some form or fashion. Sideways or down. If we continue to go higher without consolidation, it will make playing with size much harder because there is no clear support area. So, the point is...It's all about mindset, and more important THAN EVER at this stage is understanding your time frame. Meaning, if you're a day trader, you shouldn't care about that chart. You simply play the direction OF THE DAY. But if you're a swing trader as I am, you need to understand where the big river is flowing. Right now it is flowing up.

Let me recant something however, as there are individual sectors that do look interesting to me for swing shorts. IBB I started Friday.

Now, how about the QQQQ. This is a picture of clear leadership here. http://bit.ly/12zIuv Note how it already broke the big trend line going back to October, however has come right into overhead resistance from Jan and Feb. This is a very logical pullback point and any area into the Fair Game section is ok. This is the area we must keep on our radar.

So, now we have S&P, and QQQQ all looking extended, but much improved. Could pull back quite a way and still remain healthy.

Lastly, the heart and soul of the tape. The fins, ala XLF. Let's break her down. This next chart is the most important. Can anyone tell me why? They led us from the start, with everything following. http://bit.ly/lNPvc

This is so very important to understand. All rallies we have seen until this one, was led by garbage. Crushed commods coming up for air. Each time, stocks like steel, copper, coal energy etc, would run but nothing else sustained momentum. This time, we started a rally based on financials, and stealth sectors like Semiconductors saw massive inflows of money.

So, when I review this XLF chart, I see our biggest tell on where we go from here. When it breaks in either direction it will tell us. So, if you want to look like a genius. Keep the XLF in front of you and watch for a break down or a break up, out of the box. Then you can feel confident playing other sectors.

Understanding this, is what took me to heavy cash, because I did not like how the fins stagnated to end the week. So now I am in waiting mode to see. It's simple. $9.70 up, $8.67 down. I was initially concerned about the $XLF but when i review daily chart I see sideways action. We don't have to know the catalyst or care about it, much less agree with it. We just have to respect the chart movement. I am watching the Nov low. I think that is important.

Tech is leading us in % terms. No question, but they were more healthy than fins. Fins are our tell, like the engine. But trust me, if fins cooperate, areas like Semiconductors is where I want to be. That is seeing the new money flow in. I hope all that makes sense. We are at a critical juncture and to remain truly open minded and flexible, means you understand the tape.

Now, let's talk about a few things that concern me a bit, but I have to be careful not to cross into macro land. If market is running, why are commods not really participating? Glad that they didn't lead us, but they're really lagging.

Even though I work in silence, I still hear everyone yapping about re-inflation, yet the moves just aren't there yet. But, maybe we just have to be patient and give these charts time. It is why I keep coming back to them, wondering if they bust out soon because, this week a few areas showed up that would make sense to start a run here.

Rails and Infrastructure and these are areas I want to be in . Let's look at some charts.

Chart Time

CSX is one of my favorites that broke out on Thursday. The consolidation on Friday was very healthy. http://bit.ly/zF0yZ As noted in that chart, I would use 1 more day of weakness to start my position with a stop below Thursday's low.

NSC has a similar pattern yet I like the risk reward on $CSX better. http://bit.ly/RC3J0

I see excellent volume coming into these rail charts. So, rails have started to percolate. Interesting to note because as @aiki14 mentioned they transport 'stuff'. Yes, RAIL and ARII on my list as momo plays in the group.

Next up, and also interesting to note, that infrastructure plays started making themselves known this week.

JEC broke out of a multi-month trend line after consolidating early move. http://bit.ly/11Nyt

MDR also consolidating nicely above recent lateral break. http://bit.ly/tQVLr

And last but not least, the big boys who have not run and are lagging.
FLR http://bit.ly/MOLbK
FWLT http://bit.ly/4UTL

So, maybe not all trade worthy, but MUST go into the game plan. We have rails perking, infrastructure perking but commods lagging. It either means the run in the first 2 is short lived, or the 3rd will follow suit very soon. I think it is prudent for us to prepare for either. What you hopefully can see me doing and my whole point of this is how we can use charts to find themes. If commods follow suit soon, or actually lead after some consolidation, the media will paint it one way, but we'll have known far ahead.

Before we get into some other trade ideas, I want to talk about one chart that is rather concerning to me. I am long GLD and may cut. I am long GLD and starting to get a little anxious. I would suspect it to have followed through by now. http://bit.ly/pAbZG It needs to get back above the weekly trend lines ASAP or I cut it and move on. It also bothers me that it is the inflation 'no brainer' Whenever something is said to be a no-brainer, I get cautious.

Requests

GS broke over multi-month base. It can come in, but not too much. 50 day is important. http://twitpic.com/2bcwf

MOS which I like quite a bit. I want to re-enter. http://bit.ly/3B1rh

I like VMW quite a bit. watching and waiting. http://bit.ly/anzr

Lots of requests for O&G area. This sure is an area that looks like it could go either way. I believe this next chart shows the front lines of the battle in the O&G area. This chart will act as a big guide for me. I can make bullish argument and bearish for this chart. Outcome will tell me SOOO much about the group. http://bit.ly/16hUW2

Note the battle going on here in SLB. Again, bullish and bearish. Ultimate break will tell me where drillers go. http://bit.ly/DzO2

Much talk about commods and potential. I think this chart shows just how much potential http://bit.ly/cFV6T I want to participate in a move like that re: X even if it just comes back to the trend line resistance don't you?

RS Another Steel on my radar http://bit.ly/22UwCj

Lots of talk about commods. BTU is an attractive candidate should it break. http://twitpic.com/2bcmo/full

NBR is another I am watching closely for a similar trend break pattern. http://twitpic.com/2bcqn/full

Yes, I do read all those blogs

Yes, I do read all those blogs on my site. Here are the charts I found interesting and maybe you will too.

STI - SunTrust Bank
http://bit.ly/A2ir

VMW - VM Ware
http://bit.ly/UMgfw

SOLR - GT Solar
http://bit.ly/ABs1y

VIX - you know what it is...
http://bit.ly/Rqp91

QQQQ - Nasdaq ETF (thanks Mr Upsidetrader)
http://bit.ly/xB3H

QLD - Ultra Q
http://bit.ly/ThMym

HGG - HH Gregg - a play on Best Buy
http://bit.ly/zOJa5

TSYS - Telecommunications Systems
http://bit.ly/1YYpzd

EGO - Eldorado Gold - (love that symbol, don't you)
http://bit.ly/w9VtM

Ideas for the Week of 3/23/09

Disclaimer: The majority of these ideas come from the @Tickerville Saturday morning brunch. In fact, many of these are direct quotes that I use as a check-point during the week. Trade at your own risk. Any reference to "I" is from @tickerville. The blog author did not grammatically update that piece.

**Thanks to StockTwits for hosting. An excellent venue!

Weekly Recap

S&P 500 up 1.58%, NAZ up 1.80%.

Before we recap some of what we talked about last week, I want to break down the indices a bit. The reason I want to start with these 2 charts is to establish the foundation that bulls still have the ball until they don't. I think if it was ultimate bottom we'd see bigger bars. For now it still is what it is, bear market rally.

S&P 500, we often talk about constructive pullbacks. So far this is precisely what we're seeing here. http://twitpic.com/2b8jr When I review that S&P chart, I see a V shape reversal that is now starting to be digested. Close below Nov lows would be danger sign. Friday looks like massive distribution but don't be fooled as it was options expiration, skewing volume tremendously. So, in summary, S&P still looks good to me, and I am looking to redeploy should this constructive nature continue. Ideas in 2nd hour.

Next up, QQQQ this is quite interesting and an area I am stalking very closely. QQQQ chart I am stalking and like the pullback quite a bit. I suspect the Nov trend line could break on a shake. http://twitpic.com/2b8si

We have talked about FCX for many weeks now. It has been a big winner. I took sold it and am out for now. Same goes for AMZN which had a nice run. I am back on the sidelines and watching this leader.

We talked about CAB over the last 2 weeks and I mentioned I was still a spectator. I did not enter and won't as it is too chaotic

Now, some ongoing themes that I am still watching closely for areas of re-entry.

2 areas I am watching very closely are China and Semis. FXI has been good and still looks decent. http://twitpic.com/2b9ds FXI is improving a great deal and gives me confidence to continue looking at the individual china names.

I have a very interesting routine in that I'll often become interested in a major sector after finding a series of indv. charts. Once I identify the group, I'll then watch the ETF for the big picture clues on whether or not to keep playing those indv. charts.

Favorite tech sector continues to be Semis. They started consolidating the recent run. the 50 day will be key. http://twitpic.com/2b9j5

Now, last but not least, the heart and soul of the market. The fins. We broke this down last week here: http://bit.ly/Qvde

We should all know this chart by heart. Its the key to the entire market. Don't let anyone tell you differently. http://twitpic.com/2b9qp

Now, let's talk activity. Once I unloaded on Wed, I did squat the rest of the week. If I had a boat I would have pulled a Livermore. In summary, I like what I am seeing out there from the long side. I am about 98% cash waiting for my fat pitch.

What makes me nervous about the commods is that everyone is now watching them. However the setups are there. More to follow.

Another thing I want to hit on that we spoke of a lot last week is re-entries. We talked about just how important it is to try and try again, regardless of how many times you are stopped out. In years passed I would swear off a stock after a failed attempt only to see it run without me. I will now play it 100 times if I have to and while I may throw some things in my office while that happens, I'll keep at it.

Example: A few weeks ago, we started discussing DXO and last week i talked about how I was stopped on my first attempt. This week it broke again presenting another great long opportunity. I took it and profited nicely. Chart is saying it goes higher. http://twitpic.com/2baxe I will now be waiting for another setup to add shares.

STOPS
So many will set a fixed stop based on a certain % or a certain $$ amount. I think this is very wrong and quite dangerous. To say you are going to enter XYZ with a stop 10% below your entry, is a guess and again, very dangerous. Stops begin first and foremost with the plan surrounding the trade.

Let's look at a specific example on what exactly I would do. Let's look at WFR again. The trend line here would be my critical point. http://twitpic.com/2bb6s If I looked at this stock I may conclude that I would enter a position on a move BACK above the trend line which is around 15.25. My stop strategy is unique in that on the day of the break, I will first use the day low as my stop. So let's assume that on Monday the stock opens at 14.70 and has the break out above $15.25 sometime during the day. My initial stop would be at day low, or a move back below 14.70. This is to avoid getting snagged too bad on an intra-day reversal.

Now, I do have a few caveats that I have developed over the years that are very important. If the break out is $15.25 and the stock does NOT close above this break out. Meaning it broke, then failed, I will NOT hold it overnight. I have seen this happen time and again which ultimately traps longs.

If however the stock does hold the break out point, I will then move my stop TO the breakout point, and typically use an end of day rule. Meaning that I will allow it to go back below the trend intra-day but if it closes below that line, I'll be out.

I think traders MUST understand that it is the pattern that determines their stops.

Remember what we talked about last week. Once you determine your stop, you can then fully quantify your risk, meaning share count. So, in the case of WFR if you determine that your entry / stop is .55 (15.25 - 14.79) you can calc your total share count. This will be different for everyone based on how much you chose to risk on each trade. This will also depend on market. I will sometimes risk as little as $500 on each trade or as much as $20k, but once I know that my stop is .55 , I can then determine my share count with a little math.

In today's market I have had a simple rule. When I reach 1 times my risk , I take half off and adjust my stop up to my entry. Now, after that, some use trailing stops. However I chose to adjust my stops once the pattern shows its hand.

Here are some requested stocks:

SLX, broke your 26 on huge volume, then pulled back on very light volume. I think it is improving a great deal.

I like both of these.
WFR: http://twitpic.com/2ba16
IYM: http://twitpic.com/2ba1c I like quite a bit but like most it needs to set up again.

I like BRCM quite a bit. http://twitpic.com/2ba5a

ACI one of my favorite potential longs. http://twitpic.com/2ba9h

UNG had a nice move this week but it has been a suckers trap each time. I have to see it set up. I am playing DXO

I am short the dollar via UDN and will continue to ride the trend.

UGA above 24 looks nice, would like to see a pullback but good accumulation so far.

SLX is a commod key. They have everything going against them yet are improving. http://twitpic.com/2baha

CAF not the one I would play, but FXI back towards 50 day is for me.

IDEAS

A key to market is AAPL. It is acting well and could be setting up for move higher. http://twitpic.com/2bc1z

My dear friend and phenom trader @prakasht says 'GOOG is the market' http://twitpic.com/2bcd6 This will be ultimate tell. I am preparing to play GOOG in either direction when the actual break takes place.

Oh, don't get me wrong. Fins are heart and soul of market. They'll decide, but GOOG break in either direction must be played.

My strategy this week is simple, to stalk and play that which I see setting up. GOOG and AAPL are 2 examples.

Lots of talk about commods. BTU is an attractive candidate should it break. http://twitpic.com/2bcmo

NBR is another I am watching closely for a similar trend break pattern. http://twitpic.com/2bcqn

GS broke over multi-month base. It can come in, but not too much. 50day is important. http://twitpic.com/2bcwf