Disclaimer: The majority of these ideas come from the @Tickerville Saturday morning brunch. In fact, many of these are direct quotes that I use as a check-point during the week. Trade at your own risk. Any reference to "I" is from @tickerville. The blog author did not grammatically update that piece.
**Thanks to StockTwits for hosting. An excellent venue!
All I can say as the author of this update, is WOW! The last two weeks of Brunch with @Tickerville and @Stocktwits has been phenomenal. But, who cares what I think, you are here for the summary and it starts now...
Morning all. Will do live version along with @StockTwits stream. {Author's Note: this was the coolest integration, and after last week's rowdy brunch, a welcomed changed from the norm.}
Market consolidation week. About time. Tough to play though with so much back and forth. S&P down 5%. First chart is S&P 500. LOTS going on here. Worth our dissecting. S&P 500 daily. TA 101 says breakdown coming. http://twitpic.com/5a9l1 S&P 500 weekly still a powerful base but would LOVE to see dark space filled in. http://twitpic.com/5a9sd
QQQQ daily, same precarious state. 2nd wedge on tape. http://twitpic.com/5aa6l But..... QQQQ weekly still looking strong. http://twitpic.com/5aa92
So, in summary with S&P and QQQQ we're at a very tricky point. Dailies suggest roll over, weeklies suggest consolidation. So what to do? High levels of cash. Unbiased opinion. IF we roll, there are charts to play. We'll discuss. If we bounce, we must adapt. I think the summary is that we're in a key state here.
So, being in a precarious state. We must study the heart! What is the heart of the market?? That's right...the FINS. The heart and soul of the tape. Heart and soul of market XLF on trend line and flirting with break of Base 3. This is our guide. http://twitpic.com/5abep
Question about strongest sector right now...and a new words was born...FERTS!
SMH, this one clearly looks like breakdown coming. Yet weekly still good. I started here long. http://twitpic.com/5abuu
MOO bucking the trend. If we do not fall to abyss. We must play MOO http://twitpic.com/5ac4h
PER REQUEST:
DBA Excellent risk reward still. http://twitpic.com/5acei
ALXN one I have been watching on weekly to short. http://twitpic.com/5ad6f
BLL Daily I am already short. I would add on clear break. http://twitpic.com/5adcr
CEPH daily. A long that found its way on my radar this morning. http://twitpic.com/5admd
FNF a decent looking short on daily. http://twitpic.com/5ae2x
MA not a short for me but looks like it wants to roll. http://twitpic.com/5aelz
CLR http://twitpic.com/5aewu I would look for a smooch of trend.
NTAP A decent looking short, not enough reward for me just yet. http://twitpic.com/5afex
So, in conclusion. Daily charts say Warning lower prices coming. But TA 101 is so in vogue I have to think outside box. If we do not break down, as dailies suggest, we must have our long candidates (FERTS, MOO, DBA etc) ready to rock.
Saturday, May 16, 2009
Saturday, May 9, 2009
Tickerville Brunch Summary 5.9.09
Disclaimer: The majority of these ideas come from the @Tickerville Saturday morning brunch. In fact, many of these are direct quotes that I use as a check-point during the week. Trade at your own risk. Any reference to "I" is from @tickerville. The blog author did not grammatically update that piece.
**Thanks to StockTwits for hosting. An excellent venue!
Well, another week of market gains. We don't have to believe it, but we sure shouldn't fight it. Are we extended? Sure we are. Is there froth? You bet. Does it matter? NOPE! Now, our job is to neither be bulls or bears, our job is to be opportunists.
So let's talk first about the potential cracks I see. Now, it's important to remember. These cracks should eventually turn into opportunities, but we have to be patient. What is interesting about this week, is for the first time in several weeks, I had an equal # of shorts as longs. All were working well. What I am getting at, and you probably have already figured it out. Play the pattern, NOT THE MKT.
What I really want to get across in today's brunch is that it isn't about the broad move. It's about the setups. Yes, I believe we're overdue for a correction, and yes I am taking setups on short side. However I am also eying some longs.
Let's take a step back for a second and rehash just why we do this Brunch. First of all, lots of emotion out there. Let's all just put that down and remember we're all in the same battle. Arguing does not help anyone make money. The reason I do StockTwits brunch is to help people navigate the tape. 99% of info out there crushes people in either tape, but understanding HOW to play the tape is what keeps people in the game.
Point is...We can argue all we want, but rather than trying to determine where the world is going. Why don't we just focus on trades? Whether it's manipulated, short covering, summer solstice or what I ate for breakfast. It is what it is. Let's not forget what JMK said. Market can remain irrational, longer than you can remain solvent.
We have been following SMH for some time. It will be very important to watch closely how this sets up. http://twitpic.com/4uf1u The semis led the tech run, and were solid movers. They are now pulling back. I want to see this turn into healthy prudent entries. SMH Daily pullback is deep, but so far constructive. I want to see it setup. Stocks within will tell us. http://twitpic.com/4uf6v
So if SMH is getting hit, it makes sense that NAZ is looking precarious and tired. http://twitpic.com/4ufh4
So, the fact that technology has been the technically superior, the fact that it is pulling back is healthy, so far.It tells us to be aware of this filtering through other sectors as the leader takes a step back.
Another sector that is showing cracks...finally...is retail. http://twitpic.com/4ufoh This has been on a tear, but not because it's been under massive accumulation rather it has been short infested. Shorts gave up. In full disclosure, I am short XRT
So, if we have technology showing signs of being tired, and we have retail finally cracking, how about the heart on this market body? The heart is still ticking strong and therefor we MUST respect that. http://twitpic.com/4ufyu Finally, finally the XLF is in an area where it makes sense to see some significant sideways action, digesting that move. I have seen people getting CRUSHED shorting this whole move while the fins told us the ticker was still beating strong. They have now come back to Nov/Dec 08 level which was filled with massive emotion. Short them here? Not for me, there are easier trades. They may come down again soon, but so far it's been a losing bet.
So, with tech and retail showing signs of being tired, and fins coming into a clear resistance point. Are we done or is this rotation? So where is money rotating too? This is a pattern I want to own. http://twitpic.com/4ugiq
OK, so we have some cracks in the QQQQ and XRT. But we also have solid breaks OIH. We have a heart coming into resistance. And yes, we're extended. So play it close to the chest. Identify your opportunities, set your stops and get after it. So rather than discuss what is not, let's just talk about what is and study some charts. They're pictures and letters people.
If a short like FDO setups up. Take it. http://twitpic.com/4ugta Disclosure: Short FDO
Or, if ALL sets up for a long. Take it. http://twitpic.com/4ugw9
Here are some from my trading desk for the coming week.
AMT broke trend and is hanging below. I like the risk reward here quite a bit. http://twitpic.com/4uhgq
Here's another I am watching and would like to enter. AOC big break and hanging . http://twitpic.com/4uhvt
CHK breaks long base after an emotional shake. Note that we played 'emotion' with FCX. Similar break. http://twitpic.com/4ui14
GOOG is extended. No reason to do chart here. No real support until $375.
Per request FFG. It is not for me, due to stop being quite a way's away. http://twitpic.com/4uicg
Per request. PX http://twitpic.com/4uifk
Per request. ERTS Something is wrong here. Should have followed through by now. http://twitpic.com/4uijh
Per request. DV hanging by a thread. Have to look at weekly here. http://twitpic.com/4uio8
Per request. SLB one of the strongest out there. http://twitpic.com/4uisi
Per request. Entire restaurant sector. http://twitpic.com/4uiw5
Per request. FDX weekly a GREAT chart for review to keep things in perspective. http://twitpic.com/4uj7u
Per request. KBR daily extended but weekly beaut. Needs pull back and prudent entry. http://twitpic.com/4ul43
Per request. SNDA one of the strongest around. http://twitpic.com/4ul8r
I like the USO on a clear break of lateral trend. http://twitpic.com/4ulbq
I am long GHL waiting to add. Stop around $74 now.
Here's another one, KSU, I am looking at long. By now you probably can see I have longs and shorts on tape for this week. http://twitpic.com/4ujoc
If we continue to squeeze this week. We must watch Commercial Real Estate. I think I have attempted this one 3 or 4 times. EQR It looks ready if we squeeze higher. http://twitpic.com/4uk0w
Another one on my radar. PLD http://twitpic.com/4uk63
TMO another long I am looking at here. http://twitpic.com/4ukph
**Thanks to StockTwits for hosting. An excellent venue!
Well, another week of market gains. We don't have to believe it, but we sure shouldn't fight it. Are we extended? Sure we are. Is there froth? You bet. Does it matter? NOPE! Now, our job is to neither be bulls or bears, our job is to be opportunists.
So let's talk first about the potential cracks I see. Now, it's important to remember. These cracks should eventually turn into opportunities, but we have to be patient. What is interesting about this week, is for the first time in several weeks, I had an equal # of shorts as longs. All were working well. What I am getting at, and you probably have already figured it out. Play the pattern, NOT THE MKT.
What I really want to get across in today's brunch is that it isn't about the broad move. It's about the setups. Yes, I believe we're overdue for a correction, and yes I am taking setups on short side. However I am also eying some longs.
Let's take a step back for a second and rehash just why we do this Brunch. First of all, lots of emotion out there. Let's all just put that down and remember we're all in the same battle. Arguing does not help anyone make money. The reason I do StockTwits brunch is to help people navigate the tape. 99% of info out there crushes people in either tape, but understanding HOW to play the tape is what keeps people in the game.
Point is...We can argue all we want, but rather than trying to determine where the world is going. Why don't we just focus on trades? Whether it's manipulated, short covering, summer solstice or what I ate for breakfast. It is what it is. Let's not forget what JMK said. Market can remain irrational, longer than you can remain solvent.
We have been following SMH for some time. It will be very important to watch closely how this sets up. http://twitpic.com/4uf1u The semis led the tech run, and were solid movers. They are now pulling back. I want to see this turn into healthy prudent entries. SMH Daily pullback is deep, but so far constructive. I want to see it setup. Stocks within will tell us. http://twitpic.com/4uf6v
So if SMH is getting hit, it makes sense that NAZ is looking precarious and tired. http://twitpic.com/4ufh4
So, the fact that technology has been the technically superior, the fact that it is pulling back is healthy, so far.It tells us to be aware of this filtering through other sectors as the leader takes a step back.
Another sector that is showing cracks...finally...is retail. http://twitpic.com/4ufoh This has been on a tear, but not because it's been under massive accumulation rather it has been short infested. Shorts gave up. In full disclosure, I am short XRT
So, if we have technology showing signs of being tired, and we have retail finally cracking, how about the heart on this market body? The heart is still ticking strong and therefor we MUST respect that. http://twitpic.com/4ufyu Finally, finally the XLF is in an area where it makes sense to see some significant sideways action, digesting that move. I have seen people getting CRUSHED shorting this whole move while the fins told us the ticker was still beating strong. They have now come back to Nov/Dec 08 level which was filled with massive emotion. Short them here? Not for me, there are easier trades. They may come down again soon, but so far it's been a losing bet.
So, with tech and retail showing signs of being tired, and fins coming into a clear resistance point. Are we done or is this rotation? So where is money rotating too? This is a pattern I want to own. http://twitpic.com/4ugiq
OK, so we have some cracks in the QQQQ and XRT. But we also have solid breaks OIH. We have a heart coming into resistance. And yes, we're extended. So play it close to the chest. Identify your opportunities, set your stops and get after it. So rather than discuss what is not, let's just talk about what is and study some charts. They're pictures and letters people.
If a short like FDO setups up. Take it. http://twitpic.com/4ugta Disclosure: Short FDO
Or, if ALL sets up for a long. Take it. http://twitpic.com/4ugw9
Here are some from my trading desk for the coming week.
AMT broke trend and is hanging below. I like the risk reward here quite a bit. http://twitpic.com/4uhgq
Here's another I am watching and would like to enter. AOC big break and hanging . http://twitpic.com/4uhvt
CHK breaks long base after an emotional shake. Note that we played 'emotion' with FCX. Similar break. http://twitpic.com/4ui14
GOOG is extended. No reason to do chart here. No real support until $375.
Per request FFG. It is not for me, due to stop being quite a way's away. http://twitpic.com/4uicg
Per request. PX http://twitpic.com/4uifk
Per request. ERTS Something is wrong here. Should have followed through by now. http://twitpic.com/4uijh
Per request. DV hanging by a thread. Have to look at weekly here. http://twitpic.com/4uio8
Per request. SLB one of the strongest out there. http://twitpic.com/4uisi
Per request. Entire restaurant sector. http://twitpic.com/4uiw5
Per request. FDX weekly a GREAT chart for review to keep things in perspective. http://twitpic.com/4uj7u
Per request. KBR daily extended but weekly beaut. Needs pull back and prudent entry. http://twitpic.com/4ul43
Per request. SNDA one of the strongest around. http://twitpic.com/4ul8r
I like the USO on a clear break of lateral trend. http://twitpic.com/4ulbq
I am long GHL waiting to add. Stop around $74 now.
Here's another one, KSU, I am looking at long. By now you probably can see I have longs and shorts on tape for this week. http://twitpic.com/4ujoc
If we continue to squeeze this week. We must watch Commercial Real Estate. I think I have attempted this one 3 or 4 times. EQR It looks ready if we squeeze higher. http://twitpic.com/4uk0w
Another one on my radar. PLD http://twitpic.com/4uk63
TMO another long I am looking at here. http://twitpic.com/4ukph
Saturday, May 2, 2009
Tickerville Brunch Summary 5.2.09
Disclaimer: The majority of these ideas come from the @Tickerville Saturday morning brunch. In fact, many of these are direct quotes that I use as a check-point during the week. Trade at your own risk. Any reference to "I" is from @tickerville. The blog author did not grammatically update that piece.
**Thanks to StockTwits for hosting. An excellent venue!
OK, market continues to melt higher with no one on board and most betting against it. Setups seem to come and go. I think what we have to stop asking ourselves 'what the market will do' and stay focused on the patterns that develop for trades. Let's break down the indices a bit, shall we?
You can see that the SPY has started its consolidation, working off the V shape action. http://twitpic.com/4eimd The good thing about the SPY chart is it looks like it could be setting up for a trade in either direction.
Leadership QQQQ grabs 8th straight week of gains. I want in, but not here. http://twitpic.com/4eitf
But this my friends will be the ultimate tell. XLF http://twitpic.com/4ej2f Note how the XLF is consolidating for third straight week. The break here is what will be our guide for the rest of the tape.
Many weeks ago, we talked about the 'anxiety' within BTU. It was a pattern that I wanted to be in, regardless of the break. Remember? I traded BTU on Friday and executed well. The trade paid off, but I want to break down what I saw.
This was BTU from Thursday and what I saw. Tons going on here. Study it. http://twitpic.com/4ejn1 Friday, got in and partialed into strength. Not a chest thump, but shows how setups are working if you wait. http://twitpic.com/4ejsg
There is no question the commodity run was exceptional on Friday. The SLX broke out and Coals were on fire. If you were leaning against the tape or in disbelief you missed the move. IT is why we must focus on setups, and block out the darn noise.
The deep V (IYT)here concerns me quite a bit. Worthy of our respect. http://twitpic.com/4ek9f The "V" can continue, but the problem is there is no logical point of support, so we must wait until one develops.
So to give you a clue where I am. I sit with heavy heavy cash. Sticking and moving within trades that set up, waiting for pullback. The problem of course is that I don't know of a soul who isn't always waiting for a pullback to enter or short so it could take more time and is why we must keep finding opportunities, defining our risk and taking the trades. Quite simple really ;-)
If you look at the S&P, the reason this is so tricky is that it is really the first sustained bear run we've seen since this started. That is fine, as we should expect these in the context of a bear market. However a true trend has higher lows. Which we have to remain patient for. When it comes, and provides us with entry, you'll hear me talk about the trend as our friend and hopefully you'll hear me talk about how we must sit in the trend and ride it out. But this move is move 1 in what maybe a larger move.
That is why it is so tricky to time and why we SHOULDN'T try. We have to remain patient and wait.
So, if you have anxiety over what to do here, shelf it! No need. The tape is dancing high wire. It will consolidate sideways or down. But don't let it keep you from good trades. If they are out there, you identify them, take them and set your stop.
Alright let's hit some charts in the cue and then we'll digest some ideas long / short for the week ahead.
Per request, AINV, in full disclosure a good chart but not for me. http://twitpic.com/4elmp
One of my dearest friends and exceptional trader @PrakashT discussed with me the disconnect between stocks and UNG http://twitpic.com/4em09 If you noticed, the Nat Gas stocks and OIH started selling off first on Thursday, while UNG was trying to turn up. That was the sign. Sometimes you don't need to know the reason, you just need to see something that gives you the edge. If you can quant your risk then go. So with UNG, I took it with size all over. Minyanville portfolio, Fund, Sep Accounts. Then took half off on Friday.
Per request. DRYS. I was in this and took very quick gain. Did not wait and missed real move. Lesson learned. http://twitpic.com/4emhe What is interesting about DRYS is it gave everyone ample time to get in but you had to remain patient for the break. BREAKS ARE WORKING.
POT - Normally, you would look at this daily and get pretty encouraged. Maybe go long. http://twitpic.com/4enha The long off the daily may work. But don't forget this weekly. It still looks VERY Dangerous. http://twitpic.com/4enio
How about some Qman ideas? First let's start with a few longer term shorts I re-entered this week. Off their weekly charts.
Old time favorite MCD. The slow roll over. I am short here. http://twitpic.com/4eoc5
I think ORCL short still offers good risk reward with a defined stop above the Mother Trend line http://twitpic.com/4eodr
EQR I tried and took stop here on Friday. I will try again if break sets in. http://twitpic.com/4eomj
Mystery chart time. Are you ready? Tell me your thoughts here. http://twitpic.com/4eovs Failed break there was right shoulder on small H&S too. Now, you are more inclined to see the pattern and develop a strategy. Long or short THAT is good trading. Any guesses on what it is?
DrumRoll...... Pattern is..... IYR Daily. Thought it worthy of our attention since SRS about the most popular ETF going now. LOL
**Thanks to StockTwits for hosting. An excellent venue!
OK, market continues to melt higher with no one on board and most betting against it. Setups seem to come and go. I think what we have to stop asking ourselves 'what the market will do' and stay focused on the patterns that develop for trades. Let's break down the indices a bit, shall we?
You can see that the SPY has started its consolidation, working off the V shape action. http://twitpic.com/4eimd The good thing about the SPY chart is it looks like it could be setting up for a trade in either direction.
Leadership QQQQ grabs 8th straight week of gains. I want in, but not here. http://twitpic.com/4eitf
But this my friends will be the ultimate tell. XLF http://twitpic.com/4ej2f Note how the XLF is consolidating for third straight week. The break here is what will be our guide for the rest of the tape.
Many weeks ago, we talked about the 'anxiety' within BTU. It was a pattern that I wanted to be in, regardless of the break. Remember? I traded BTU on Friday and executed well. The trade paid off, but I want to break down what I saw.
This was BTU from Thursday and what I saw. Tons going on here. Study it. http://twitpic.com/4ejn1 Friday, got in and partialed into strength. Not a chest thump, but shows how setups are working if you wait. http://twitpic.com/4ejsg
There is no question the commodity run was exceptional on Friday. The SLX broke out and Coals were on fire. If you were leaning against the tape or in disbelief you missed the move. IT is why we must focus on setups, and block out the darn noise.
The deep V (IYT)here concerns me quite a bit. Worthy of our respect. http://twitpic.com/4ek9f The "V" can continue, but the problem is there is no logical point of support, so we must wait until one develops.
So to give you a clue where I am. I sit with heavy heavy cash. Sticking and moving within trades that set up, waiting for pullback. The problem of course is that I don't know of a soul who isn't always waiting for a pullback to enter or short so it could take more time and is why we must keep finding opportunities, defining our risk and taking the trades. Quite simple really ;-)
If you look at the S&P, the reason this is so tricky is that it is really the first sustained bear run we've seen since this started. That is fine, as we should expect these in the context of a bear market. However a true trend has higher lows. Which we have to remain patient for. When it comes, and provides us with entry, you'll hear me talk about the trend as our friend and hopefully you'll hear me talk about how we must sit in the trend and ride it out. But this move is move 1 in what maybe a larger move.
That is why it is so tricky to time and why we SHOULDN'T try. We have to remain patient and wait.
So, if you have anxiety over what to do here, shelf it! No need. The tape is dancing high wire. It will consolidate sideways or down. But don't let it keep you from good trades. If they are out there, you identify them, take them and set your stop.
Alright let's hit some charts in the cue and then we'll digest some ideas long / short for the week ahead.
Per request, AINV, in full disclosure a good chart but not for me. http://twitpic.com/4elmp
One of my dearest friends and exceptional trader @PrakashT discussed with me the disconnect between stocks and UNG http://twitpic.com/4em09 If you noticed, the Nat Gas stocks and OIH started selling off first on Thursday, while UNG was trying to turn up. That was the sign. Sometimes you don't need to know the reason, you just need to see something that gives you the edge. If you can quant your risk then go. So with UNG, I took it with size all over. Minyanville portfolio, Fund, Sep Accounts. Then took half off on Friday.
Per request. DRYS. I was in this and took very quick gain. Did not wait and missed real move. Lesson learned. http://twitpic.com/4emhe What is interesting about DRYS is it gave everyone ample time to get in but you had to remain patient for the break. BREAKS ARE WORKING.
POT - Normally, you would look at this daily and get pretty encouraged. Maybe go long. http://twitpic.com/4enha The long off the daily may work. But don't forget this weekly. It still looks VERY Dangerous. http://twitpic.com/4enio
How about some Qman ideas? First let's start with a few longer term shorts I re-entered this week. Off their weekly charts.
Old time favorite MCD. The slow roll over. I am short here. http://twitpic.com/4eoc5
I think ORCL short still offers good risk reward with a defined stop above the Mother Trend line http://twitpic.com/4eodr
EQR I tried and took stop here on Friday. I will try again if break sets in. http://twitpic.com/4eomj
Mystery chart time. Are you ready? Tell me your thoughts here. http://twitpic.com/4eovs Failed break there was right shoulder on small H&S too. Now, you are more inclined to see the pattern and develop a strategy. Long or short THAT is good trading. Any guesses on what it is?
DrumRoll...... Pattern is..... IYR Daily. Thought it worthy of our attention since SRS about the most popular ETF going now. LOL
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