Saturday, April 25, 2009

StockTwits brunch sous chef @medicvz steppin in for da Q-Man

Disclaimer: The majority of these ideas come from the @Tickerville Saturday morning brunch. In fact, many of these are direct quotes that I use as a check-point during the week. Trade at your own risk. Any reference to "I" is from @medicvz. The blog author did not grammatically update that piece.

StockTwits brunch sous chef @medicvz steppin in for da Q-Man this week.

If you’ve been following the good advice here on @stocktwits and feasting on @tickerville ‘s brunch you have caught much of this move.

Quite the end of the week with the S&P almost erasing the damage done from a miserable Monday. I tell you what... the eyes in here are amazing... as money rotates out... i agree that the ag names could be next up.

How did you trade this week? Did Monday catch you off guard? Did you participate near the end? I know some were caught on their heels after Monday's plunge-a-roo. Meaning... i think many anticipated the drop... but Tuesday was a bit of a surprise.

Many of the good traders I know have been mostly sidelined this week, Sidestepping the move monday and participating in cautiously small amounts the rest of the week.

Much of success in trading comes down to knowing yourself as a trader. Knowing which set ups and trades work for you. Following some of the great traders is a wonderful thing, but do you understand who YOU are as a trader? Do you know where your comfort zone is? Can you define for someone else what sort of trade is in your wheelhouse? If you can’t see the fat pitches that come your way... you certainly cant swing at them... and take them into the bleachers. This also prevents you from swinging at the high heat-every now and then you can connect on one... but my gosh I seem to wiff on those. Do me a favor and take in the fresh air this weekend and think about who you are as a trader... what is your style... what is your play.

It's a point stated over and over, but is worth repeating... We should all strive to be flexible and open minded. Every weekend I reset, take some time away and remind myself of what has proved successful and what has gotten me into trouble.

As traders we must control our emotions... the tape is emotional enough. For every day you kill it, remember there was a day where you got smoked.... lets keep our minds right and our screens green.

So lets get to it!

SPX ends this week a whopping 3.37 points lower than where it ended last week... that's points not percent. For all the fireworks we essentially are in the same spot. Only this time, it’s on lower volume with a couple of ugly days in between. Feel good yesterday? I ask you to have a look at Monday (duh) but Wednesday as well... reversal with a U G L Y close... volume there too.

I agree 840 is important but I'm thinking we're range bound... and currently at the top of the channel. http://chart.ly/xbswzp Ok, so here is our range. SPX back up into resistance on light volume... looking at those tops in late Jan and early Feb. There seems to be a band of churn here between 810 and 870... so we’re back at the top of that range. So break up? Break down? Seems to me that when you DON’T know... you DON’T GUESS... well at least not an educated guess.

Anxiety of missing a move can cause mistakes- to start swinging at bad pitches and then all of a sudden you’re back in the dugout. A fade down to 810 again would reinforce the idea that we’ve been basing over the past couple of months. http://chart.ly/ft6xh3 SPX - A fade down to 810 again would build a stronger base and be a trend break kiss.

Mighty Mighty XLF downtrend break and some crazy funk action this week. The action in the first half of the week was whippy. http://chart.ly/rs6rtb -Head and shoulders here on the XLF 30min. Like it or not we need the fins to move up for this market to break out... I would watch this 30min chart as your guide next week. That same h/s can been seen in many of the charts... watch that for direction.

Anyone play the OIH this week? Boy was that a nice breakout. I think if we do get a little market fade then I will be looking for entries in the OIH names, provided the break holds. http://chart.ly/k22sfy -Have a look at that multi month breakout.

FLY http://chart.ly/hbyzen -Nice breakout and run, but right into resistance... if I was long I'd book gains.

SMH - http://chart.ly/3wwnmb - Love me some Semi's but needs to push over that high on 11/4/08.

ADI - http://chart.ly/p4w69v -of the semi's have a look here... nice h/s breakout...

PBG - http://chart.ly/gbdg6q - Quite the gap! Not for me here, but you can define your risk easily... stop below the break.

MOS - http://chart.ly/s4273v - Looks like you might see some movement higher up to the underside of the trendline. MOS with the trendbreak lower from last week... volume pattern suggests selling all last week.

POT - http://chart.ly/6a97z3 - more ugly volume here, and the price is in no mans land.

Remember DBA is a commod. play... not an equity play. http://chart.ly/et9nhy - There is some resistance in here... but oh boy does that trend break look sweet.

Ok gang... mystery chart time... lets hear ya... get long? short? stay away? http://twitpic.com/3ytsf Before I tell you what it is... I want you to think about what you would do here. Let the tape talk... make a plan and I will have @tickerville review it next week.

Ok all before we call it a day I want to show you want I'm looking at next week.

IBB - http://chart.ly/f2fttp - I will be looking short the IBB next week as it runs into resistance.

Also looking at IGE for next week.

One final thought... You may not know what the market is going to do next.... but know what YOU are going to do next.

Sunday, April 19, 2009

Blog Ideas/Notes 4.20

AlphaTrends Longs
CBEY
USU
CCJ
CTSH
FEED
MPEL - above 4.6
QSII
RVBD
XRAY
FMD - tiny bank

Shorts
NUVA
XOM 68.30 stop
CVX
PGN 35.25 stop
NST
ALXN

PMTI - tradersprotege
SFLY - tradersprotege

ChartSwingTrader
Longs
MGM
DNR
SIGA - needs to consolidate
FEED - pull back around 3
VTNC
F - needs to hold 9 DMA
CTRP - only chase with volume
APWR - maybe late?
DTSI - consolidating?
BBBY - above 32?
OCN - above 12

Shorts
KIRK
WFC - lows July, Nov at 20.25
PNC - same chart as WFC
WGOV - filled gap
ADM - go to 15?
LPHI
COCO - closer to 19 better to short
CPLA - lower highs

short $HAL below 18.27, protective stop above 19 target 14.74 - 14.16 min R/R 4.8

Saturday, April 18, 2009

My Tickerville Summary - Ideas Week of 4/20/09

Disclaimer: The majority of these ideas come from the @Tickerville Saturday morning brunch. In fact, many of these are direct quotes that I use as a check-point during the week. Trade at your own risk. Any reference to "I" is from @tickerville. The blog author did not grammatically update that piece.

**Thanks to StockTwits for hosting. An excellent venue!

Good morning traders! How is everyone this morning? It's 10am; do you know where your charts are??

Indexes extended their gains this week but does that mean I am fighting the tape here? No sir, but I have effectively gone to cash, booked solid gains and am sidelined.

Let me mark up the S&P and show you why. Many lines on this pup worth noting. Lots going on here. Take a moment to really study it. You can see we're in a clear resistance point. http://twitpic.com/3irvq/full

Don't be confused by Friday's volume ala Options induced. Had it not been expiration, volume would have been quite low.

Now, that is the SPY, but let's takes a look at a few other danger signs that say we should be on guard.

Safe to say we have nailed the semis and been there before most. Now they're coming into key resistance area. http://twitpic.com/3is3n/full

There are 2 more warning signs I am seeing. One in the heart and soul of the tape that has kept us long until recently.

The leaders, XLF have been outstanding. Now they're coming into significant overhead resistance. http://twitpic.com/3is8w/full

And, finally the Dow is bumping up against its mother trend. Will it break the first time or need a breather? http://twitpic.com/3ise2

For weeks you have heard me ride the trend. I am not a fighter of the tape, but now I am retreating to the sidelines for a bit. I will wait and watch and see how it shakes out. I will be looking for constructive pullbacks for entry. The tape remains bullish, but needs to digest. Best case would be a pull back that goes deeper than we expect. This is why I am so inclined to keep an eye on the 2002 lows line noted in the S&P chart. If a pullback gets nasty this point makes sense.

Now, we MUST remember that the trend is our friend and right now the intermediate term trend is up. Trends can last longer than we expect. So we must be eying prudent risk reward regardless of what the big picture says. If we take trades and get stopped out, so be it.

We'll go over ideas for the coming week in a bit. First a few more big picture thoughts. I see many people licking their lips wanting to short again. Day trading that is fine, but we must respect what is happening on the chart.

QQQQ demands our respect. We must change our longer term idea from shorting to buying. http://twitpic.com/3isx1

The world is talking inflation, global slow down, depression and blah, while tech is breaking out of the strongest pattern known. A group I want to chat a bit about are the commods. After weeks of battle they are finally breaking. We have to observe and respect.

SLX two time frames, finally starting to show some life. http://twitpic.com/3itas and http://twitpic.com/3itb0 OIH is another that has quietly started to make itself known. Like SLX, I want to see how this break is handled http://twitpic.com/3itws/full

So what is interesting to note about SLX and OIH is that they are finally joining the party. They have actually lagged technically. I want to play them but I want to see how they react as the other major averages are hitting resistance. I am in none of them currently.

Hmmm, lot's of questions about taking shorts here. Let's hash that out a bit. One of the biggest challenges I see with traders is that they feel they must always be involved in a trade. If you can effectively switch sides in an instant with absolutely no anxiety or frustration whatsoever than with defined risk its game on.

But most cannot do that. Rather than look to short when we come into resistance, why not just step aside and lighten up a bit? If you start shorting and you are early, ala wrong, not only will you get hit financially, but emotionally too. Most traders I have seen have not capitalized on this run because they have been more interested in finding the turn down than playing up. Has this been you? How come?

At this point, please understand my thesis. I have had a great run, new all time highs again. Indices at resistance, time to wait it out. If we pull back as the charts suggest we may. We evaluate the opportunities for long side entry. If this comes we take them. If we pull back and start to break down. Shorts will setup like crazy and we'll switch to that side minting money on a downside slide.

OK, let's get back to the charts. If anyone has any thoughts on the previous, please let me know. Always a good topic to discuss.

CBG The real estate trades have been fantastic. http://twitpic.com/3iuq6

SPG Per request @Upsidetrader I played this break and enjoyed the run. Sold it about $5 too early. Geeze http://twitpic.com/3iut3

PG Not one for me. http://twitpic.com/3iv0w

AAPL not for me here. http://twitpic.com/3iv54

You will see that most of the leadership stocks are extended and not for me. Another reason I have moved to cash.

ZLC http://twitpic.com/3iva9 I played and prefer TIF but am now out after nice run. Looking for a remount.

The hangman on FLY on Friday would keep me away.

Last week we spoke of BA. Per request, an update. http://twitpic.com/3ivi0

FLS http://twitpic.com/3ivmt One I like quite a bit, if it gives me entry.

Best way to see my ongoing take with GLD is Tape Talk. http://bit.ly/9SxoN Not to bunt but I cover it at length.

OK, I think I hit all the cue, how about some ideas I'm watching for the week ahead. I doubt I'll do much this week as I observe the action from sidelines, but let's run through some potential gems.

GRMN has been consolidating nicely within a key area saying break coming. Direction doesn't matter. http://twitpic.com/3iwcq

A I like the emotional break here. I played it and am now looking for re-entry. http://twitpic.com/3iwrg

If OIH is breaking, the components must be watched. Here is DO http://twitpic.com/3ix8k

I want to be in SLB with a stop at the mother trend line. http://twitpic.com/3ixd0

Last within the OIH space is RIG. Now if these breaks start failing, they will be excellent shorts. http://twitpic.com/3ixh7/full

Last week our mystery chart was a bust. It was BTU. I played the initial break and was stopped the same day. A lesson in discipline. We broke the anxiety down quite a bit in BTU and you can see the failed breakout here. http://twitpic.com/3ixs4

Last week we ran out of time before I got into new leadership. Let's rehash some weeklies we must continue to respect.

GHL is one of the best weekly charts out there. I am long and looking to add. I have a long leash. http://twitpic.com/3iy3p

I am not yet in this stock, but will be. QSII another one of the top weekly patterns out there. http://twitpic.com/3iyak

Last but not least. This was a mystery chart from some time ago. It is breaking and I am long. NVEC http://twitpic.com/3iyfn

Last on the idea front, if BA continues to act well, look for PCP to break towards trend. http://twitpic.com/3iymm

Alright all, 15 minutes left. Any other requests to hit before we start closing up shop? Geesh every week gets better and better love it

Interesting SWC http://twitpic.com/3iz2l

PCLN http://twitpic.com/3iz6y

It would be wrong of me not to include my favorite short opportunity. ADM http://twitpic.com/3izc5

Sunday, April 12, 2009

My Tickerville Summary - Ideas Week of 4/13/09

Disclaimer: The majority of these ideas come from the @Tickerville Saturday morning brunch. In fact, many of these are direct quotes that I use as a check-point during the week. Trade at your own risk. Any reference to "I" is from @tickerville. The blog author did not grammatically update that piece.

**Thanks to StockTwits for hosting. An excellent venue!

OK, I want to start out this weekend with a statement that I wish I could scream from the mountain tops. STOP FIGHTING THE blanking TAPE!!!! Let's break it down a bit. There are 2 tanks for a trader. An emotional and financial. You must keep your financial tank in tact to stay in the game. That is RULES based, but your EMOTIONAL tank allows you to execute. If you are busy fighting the tape, you are depleting the emotional tank and cannot execute with confidence.

Wow, I am fired up this morning. Do you LOVE WHAT YOU DO?? I can't think of anything better than stocks. Geesh.

If you find yourself zombie like, because you don't 'believe' the move, then chose to do 1 of the following. A.) Do nothing, step away and let the market do what it is going to do. Detach yourself from the ticks. I do it often. B.) Play small, VERY SMALL to at least rebuild the confidence level and to see what is working.

The #1 problem with traders is how you began your statement. "Convinced" Or 'Think" or 'Assume'. I am so sick and tired of jamokes guessing and imposing their belief on the tape. Follow the TAPE, it NEVER Lies!!

Let's get started!


I got tons of feedback on this (XLF) as everyone waited and watched for the break to come. Well, it broke. http://twitpic.com/35j2n I think we all should keep a graphic of this chart by our computers at all times. While the world was debating, note how XLF digested. Whether you are playing the fins directly or not, it is the heart and soul of the tape. We have to keep this chart up to be our guide. Will it retrace? Sure it will, but now we pull out past Brunch archives to determine whether or not it is healthy.

My best mover this week was BAC long. Not just a position in my fund, but publicly held in Minyanville portfolio as well. While others fight it,I peeled off a portion, raised stop to guarantee winning trade and now looking for remount http://twitpic.com/35jaa

OK, We'll come back to the indices in a bit, but I want to touch on something that is getting NO press but very important. Clearly, we are in earnings season so get in the habit of checking when your names report. I am NOT an EPS gambler. OK, back to previous point. Its EPS season and as I pound in Tickerville.com members heads. It is NOT the report, it is the REACTION. I could care less about a report, all I care about is what a stock does after a report. This is what is so important to understand.

AA -short from saying they were going out of business. It was a TERRIBLE quarter. How has stock reacted? http://twitpic.com/35jms

MOS -just as awful. Didn't they even guide lower? Reaction excellent and a descent set up going fwd. http://twitpic.com/35jnp

BBBY -retail play busting out. Terrible quarter? you bet. http://twitpic.com/35jpf

Now, the point of these charts are not to say I will go long these stocks, nor will I start betting on earnings. The point is to understand where we are in the game. Whether or not these reports have been priced in. These stocks say they have been.

OK, several weeks ago, we broke down EEM mystery chart as noted here: http://twitpic.com/1wn6e/full The reason I bring this up, is not because I want to pound chest. I LOATH that, it is because I want to discuss the process. Whether or not it worked was irrelevant, it was a matter of identifying the setup, identifying the stop, and taking the trade. I posted 2 charts that week that were interesting to me. Both weekly, (as noted below) and daily. http://twitpic.com/1wnkk/full Of course I heard all the garbage about international mkts, which went in one ear and out the other, but the pattern was sound. EEM is now one of the strongest ETF's out there and we can move our stop where noted on chart. http://twitpic.com/35kbj

You see, trading is not about picking a hot stock or sector. Stock picks are a commodity. It is about execution. The more I grow as a trader / money manager, the more I learn that it is about refining the trading plan, rather than finding ideas.

To recap begin: We all must look within and see if we're fighting or embracing moves. We must realize where the financials are in the game ala breaking out and watch their retracement to measure health. We must understand how stocks are reacting to poor earnings. ala MOS, AA, BBBY and we must remember ala EEM that it is not about the stock / ETF, it's about the darn plan.

CHARTS - Alright, trading lessons over, let's get to the here and now.

We've talked at length about 840 on S&P and its importance. We're now back above this level. http://twitpic.com/35klk The mother trend has been broken and we now must study health of consolidation. It is important for 840 to hold on retracement. Note the volume on Friday's break.

QQQQ is the strongest index around. Note the break off double bottom. http://twitpic.com/35kqk If you aren't accustomed to looking at weeklies, you should start. Much easier to see double bottom here http://twitpic.com/35kui

IYR - This has been a classic trend break. Break, Kiss, Follow Through. http://twitpic.com/35ky6

IYT is still offering good risk reward, and needs to hold the Nov low base. http://twitpic.com/35l2q I watch those ETF's all day every day for clues. So far they are acting very well. The IYT needs to be observed closely.

Alright, so after have a few great weeks, all accounts hitting new all time highs, what is plan for this coming week? If the long weekend knocks some sense into traders and they come in giddy, I will sell inventory into morning gap. If we open flat to down and start the consolidation process, I will watch current holdings and new ideas closely. I have already peeled off to protect gains, and raised stops, so now it is all about position management.

Let's look at some places I'll be eying this coming week. Please note, I will chase NONE of these. I want prudent entry with stops in place.

MS is one I am watching closely and started Friday. http://twitpic.com/35lg9

I attempted ADI on Friday but closed it when it did not close at highs. It is one I want to remount. http://twitpic.com/35lk9

With a stop at Friday's low, I am looking to remount APA. I will not chase. http://twitpic.com/35lpl

BA was knocking on death's door, but now is breaking out. I want in. http://twitpic.com/35lui

Have you noticed the stealth rally in Solar? STP has good risk reward with stop here. http://twitpic.com/35lz6

Per Request:

GE: http://twitpic.com/35mas

SLX: http://twitpic.com/35mer It's a battle ground. I have found easier trades.

See the IYR in regards to SRS. If IYR break fails, I'll look back at SRS until then not for me.

Rather than AEM how about GLD. http://twitpic.com/35mk2

Love the semis as noted in previous brunches. I am long SMH http://twitpic.com/35mn6

KR: This one I have been watching for short entry off weekly for some time. http://twitpic.com/35mpp

ADM - I think it important to highlight a short I am watching. http://twitpic.com/35noj

OK, I think I got all stocks in the cue. Let's knock out a mystery chart. Love this one. Thoughts on Mystery Chart for this week? http://twitpic.com/35n1f

BTU it is. One of the most anxiety filled stocks around right now. As you can clearly see, BTU is in a channel the is well defined. I suspect a break is coming soon, after much heartache. This break could be up, or down, but either way, I will play it and suspect it has a long way to go.